Thursday 8 March 2012

NRL 2012: Round 2 NRL Preview Tips Teams Predictions Late Mail Fantasy News Odds

ROUND 2 NRL TIPPING PREVIEW
By W D Nicolson 

Manly started as outsiders in their first game since winning the premiership... they'll start as outsiders in their second game as well.

No love for Manly - that I can agree with, but in the betting markets - lunacy!

For more on Round 2, check out the Podcast and Preview below.

For game-specific Late Mail every week - check back on Friday (or if there's an earlier game, earlier) foi all your tipping and fantasy game needs.

Latest Podcast 07/03/2012: Download as MP3
NOT The Footy Show Episode 93 - NRL Round 2 Preview

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NRL PREVIEW ROUND 2 - 2012
08/03 Odds are courtesy of Sportingbet Australia
For some more insight into the markets check out NOT The Footy Show's new resident tipster's site GT Tips http://www.gttips.co.uk
All Kick-Offs are LOCAL time.


FRIDAY - MARCH 9
SEA EAGLES $2.14 v $1.73 TIGERS    
MAN +2.0 | GAME STATS | @ Bluetongue Stadium, Gosford. 7:45pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS
Warrick Nicolson and Matt Vickers. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
MAN 4th WTG 8th
Last week, Manly beat the Warriors 26-20 in Auckland, while the Tigers beat the Sharks 17-16 at Leichhardt in golden point.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
MAN 6 WTG 4
The Tigers won14-12 in Round 21 at Bluetongue last year, and have won 3 of the last 4.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS
MAN: B Stewart, M Oldfield, J Lyon (c), D Whare, D Williams, K Foran, D Cherry-Evans, J King (c), M Ballin, B Kite, A Watmough, T Williams, G Stewart.
Bench: Buhrer, Mauro, Lussick, Robinson.
[Team Changes - The Sea Eagles lost Steve Matai to a broken thumb and on Tuesday night they lost Glenn Stewart to a finger injury after naming him to play. Jamie Buhrer or Vic Mauro will start, with George Rose or Daniel Harrison likely to come onto the bench. Dean Whare is the replacement at centre for Matai, with Jorge Taufua back in the NSW Cup after being 18th man in Round 1. ]
WTG: T Humble, B Ryan, B Ayshford, C Lawrence, M Utai, B Marshall, T Moltzen, A Woods, R Farah (c), M Groat, A Blair, G Ellis, C Heighington.
Bench: L Fulton, J Moors, M Bell, J Reddy, B Murdoch-Masila, S Meaney, S Spence.
[Team Changes - James Tedesco will miss the season with a knee injury and Keith Galloway is out 4-6 weeks with a foot injury. Matt Groat starts for Galloway and Tom Humble is the fullback. Sean Meaney, Ben Murdoch-Masila and Shaun Spence are the extra players on the bench that will likely feature Junior Moors and Joel Reddy. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Manly looked in great form and dusted the Warriors in Auckland, while the Tigers sputtered and coughed their way to a win over the Sharks. With Galloway out I think that puts Manly's pack on top, with or without Glenn Stewart. Manly in a close one.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Glenn Stewart was ruled out on Tuesday night. Vic Mauro or Jamie Buhrer will replace him. Daniel Harrison or George Rose could come onto the bench. Kieran Foran should play despite a leg problem, but isn't confirmed. The Tigers will trim their bench before the game, with Tim Moltzen's finger injury still not 100% and some talk that Gareth Ellis is under his own injury cloud.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Sea Eagles by 2.

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NOT The Footy Show Episode 93 - NRL Round 2 Video Preview

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FRIDAY - MARCH 9
BRONCOS $1.52 v $2.57 COWBOYS    
NQL +5.5 | GAME STATS | @ Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. 7:45pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS
Matthew Duncan and Ben Hoese. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
BRI 2nd NQL 16th
Brisbane won 18-6 at Parramatta and North Queensland lost 18-0 at home to the Titans.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
BRI 8 NQL 2
They split two games last year but the Broncos have won 8 of the last 9.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS
BRI: J Hoffman, G Beale, J Reed, J Hodges, J Yow Yeh, C Norman, P Wallace, B Hannant, A McCullough, S Thaiday (c), A Glenn, B Te'o, C Parker.
Bench: B Hunt, J McGuire, M Gillett, P Civoniceva.
[Team Changes - The inclusion of Petero Civoniceva is the big one, as he returns from a one match suspension from the trials. Nick Slyney makes way, with Scott Anderson not yet fit after straining his back in the gym in the leadup to Round 1. Sam Thaiday remains at prop, with Ben Te'o and Alex Glenn the preferred second rowers. ]
NQL: M Bowen, A Graham, B Tate, K Linnett, A Winterstein, J Thurston (c), R Thompson, M Scott (c), A Payne, J Tamou, G Cooper, G Hall, D Johnson.
Bench: J Segeyaro, J Riethmuller, A Sims, J Taumalolo, C Paterson, K Fai-Fai Loa.
[Team Changes - Robert Lui, Scott Bolton and Mosese Pangai were dropped to QLD Cup, with James Segeyaro, Jason Taumalolo, Cory Paterson and Kalifa Fai-Fai Loa recalled. Brent Tate has been named to play but is still in considerable doubt with injured ribs. Neil Henry didn't waste any time swinging the axe. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
North Queensland can't be as bad this week, but they also have to take on a Brisbane team that was solid against Parramatta and now play their first game in front of what will be a huge Suncorp crowd. The Cowboys can win this, but I'm not tipping them. Brisbane.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Glenn Hall is unlikely to play due to a foot problem, so either Scott Bolton, Cory Paterson or Jason Taumalolo are set to start. Brent Tate is still 50/50, with Kalifa Fai-Fai Loa on standby.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Broncos by 4.

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SATURDAY - MARCH 10
TITANS $1.72 v $2.13 RAIDERS     
CAN +2.0 | GAME STATS | @ Skilled Park, Gold Coast. 4:30pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS
Greg Delaney and Craig Buchanan. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
GLD 1st CAN 12th
The Titans won 18-0 in North Queensland, while the Raiders lost 24-19 to Melbourne in Canberra.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
GLD 6 CAN 4
The Titans won both games last year and have won every game played on the Gold Coast since 2007.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS
GLD: W Zillman, S Michaels, J Idris, D Peyroux, D Mead, J Rankin, S Prince (c), L Bailey, K Lawton, N Myles, G Bird, M Minichiello, A Harrison.
Bench: L Douglas, M White, B Ridge, M Srama, L O'Dwyer.
[Team Changes - There's still no Beau Champion and Dom Peyroux holds onto his centre spot, despite the return in the QLD Cup of Kevin Gordon. Jordan Rankin stays at five-eighth and newly re-signed William Zillman is the fullback. Luke O'Dwyer is 18th man in an otherwise unchanged team. ]
CAN: J Dugan, B Ferguson, J Croker, S Berrigan, J Wighton, T Campese (c), J McCrone, D Shillington, T Waddell, B White, J Papalii, B Harrison, S Fensom.
Bench: G Buttriss, J Thompson, D Tilse, T Thurling.
[Team Changes - Reece Robinson will miss a month with a broken cheekbone, so young Jack Wighton gets named on the wing to make his first grade debut. But Wighton must beat a Toyota Cup judiciary charge for a dangerous tackle first. If suspended, expect Jarrod Croker to move to the wing and Joel Thompson to start at left centre. Brett White comes into the starting team for the injured Tom Learoyd-Lahrs who aggravated a foot problem against the Storm, and Trevor Thurling is added to the bench. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Canberra recovered from a lazy start against Melbourne to get in front... only to get lazy again and lose. The Titans had a win handed to them by North Queensland's deplorable handling, so you can't say the Titans have turned everything around. Mind you Canberra didn't win many more games last year. Call it a hunch, but I'll go Canberra because they have more points in them.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Jack Wighton was cleared and will play, but he may not start on the wing, with Joel Thompson into the centres and Jarrod Croker to the wing. Dimitri Pelo is another option. The Titans are fine.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Raiders by 7.

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SATURDAY - MARCH 10
BULLDOGS $2.48 v $1.55 DRAGONS     
CBY +4.5 | GAME STATS | @ ANZ Stadium, Sydney. 7:30pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS
Maria Tsialis and Matt Spillane. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
CBY 3rd STI 7th
Canterbury won 22-14 away to Penrith and the Dragons won 15-14 in golden point over Newcastle in Newcastle.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
CBY 4 STI 6
The Dragons have won the past 6 games and the Dogs haven't cracked double figures in 4 of those games.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS
CBY: B Barba, S Turner, J Morris, J Wright, B Goodwin, J Reynolds, T Hodkinson, A Tolman, M Ennis (c), S Kasiano, F Pritchard, D Halatau, D Stagg.
Bench: J Graham, G Eastwood, C Payne, J Romelo, K Keating, M Taupau.
[Team Changes - James Graham was immense from the bench against the Panthers, playing 66 straight minutes. Des Hasler retains the same formula that found a way to beat the Panthers, with Kris Keating and Martin Taupau the extra men on the bench once again. ]
STI: K Stanley, B Morris, B Scott, M Cooper, J Nightingale, J Soward, B Hornby (c), J Latimore, M Rein, M Weyman, M Prior, B Creagh, D Young.
Bench: N Fien, L Ah Mau, T Merrin, J de Belin. 
[Team Changes - Beau Scott remains in the centres, with Matt Prior sticking in the second row. Dean Young is at lock, with Jack de Belin on the bench once again. Matt Cooper is a concern with an ankle injury but could still play. Chase Stanley returns in the NSW Cup, as does Josh Miller from injury. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
A good judge tipped me off this week that the Dogs just can't score on this St.George-Illawarra defence. Since the end of 2008, the Dogs have scored 0, 18, 6, 6, 6 and 10 points in their six straight losses. Show me you can score against the Dragons and I'll pick you Doggies, so Dragons for me.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Matt Cooper remains in doubt with an ankle injury, Chase Stanley would be his likely replacement. Frank Pritchard was suspended for a week, paving the way for Jake Foster or Dale Finucane to come onto the bench.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Dragons by 2.

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SUNDAY - MARCH 11
SHARKS $2.14 v $1.73 KNIGHTS      
CRO +2.0 | GAME STATS | @ Toyota Stadium, Cronulla. 2:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS
Michael McLucas and Greg Delaney. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
CRO 9th NEW 10th
Cronulla lost 17-16 away to the Tigers in golden point and the Knights lost 15-14 to the Dragons in golden point at home.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
CRO 3 NEW 7
The Knights have won the past 3 games but Cronulla have won 2 of the last 3 at Toyota.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS
CRO: N Gardner, S Mills, B Pomeroy, C Best, J Williams, W Graham, T Carney, B Gibbs, I De Gois, B Ross, J Smith, A Tupou, P Gallen (c).
Bench: A Fifita, S Tagataese, J Morris, M Taufua, J Bukuya.
[Team Changes - The return of Stewart Mills from a hamstring strain sees him replace Matt Wright on the wing. Andrew Fifita and Paul Gallen got through Round 1 fine and will play here. Wade Graham suffered from dehydration against the Tigers but should be ok for Sunday, and Nathan Gardner is expected to shrug off an ankle complaint to play. ]
NEW: D Boyd, J McManus, W Naiqama, J Sa'u, A Uate, K Gidley (c), J Mullen, K Snowden, D Buderus, A Cuthbertson, C Houston, Z Taia, N Costigan.
Bench: M Hilder, R Fa'aoso, J Edwards, A McKinnon.
[Team Changes - With Timana Tahu suspended for a week, Junior Sa'u gets back into first grade quicker than he would have expected after being demoted to the NSW Cup. Joel Edwards should play despite a minor knee injury picked up against the Dragons. There are no other changes. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Both teams fell in golden point and had chances to win their games. The Knights were more disappointing given the occasion of the season opener in Newcastle, while the Sharks stayed in their game with the Tigers well. I think Newcastle are the better team but I can't pick them away from home based on last week's performance. Sharks (gulp).
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Andrew Fifita should play despite back and knee issues, Stewart Mills will definitely play. The Knights are fine.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Sharks by 4.

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SUNDAY - MARCH 11
ROOSTERS $1.52 v $2.57 PANTHERS      
PEN +5.5 | GAME STATS | @ Sydney Football Stadium, Sydney. 3:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS
Warrick Nicolson and Matt Vickers. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
SYD 6th PEN 14th
The Roosters won 24-20 over the Roosters at ANZ and Penrith lost 22-14 to the Bulldogs at home.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
SYD 6 PEN 4
The Roosters have won the past 2 games - both at the SFS. Not much to read into here.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS
SYD: A Minichiello, J Carney, J Leilua, M Aubusson, S Perrett, B Anasta (c), M Pearce, J Waerea-Hargreaves, J Friend, L Tasi, A Guerra, B Cordner, F-P Nuuausala.
Bench: T Arona, M Masoe, M Kennedy, D Mortimer, A Mitchell.
[Team Changes - No Tautau Moga again, with Carney and Leilua retaining their spots. Braith Anasta may make a return from a back injury that forced his late withdrawal from Round 1, shifting Daniel Mortimer to the bench. Frank-Paul Nuuausala had back spasms but returned to the field so he'll be ok. ]
PEN: L Coote, E Uaisele, M Jennings, B Tighe, S Earl, T Burns, L Walsh, S McKendry, K Kingston, T Grant, L Lewis (c), C Ciraldo, N Smith.
Bench: D Weston, C Armit, C Newton, B Austin, D Galea.
[Team Changes - Ivan Cleary has been forced to make two changes to the starting lineup for Round 2 against the Roosters. Michael Gordon (leg) and David Simmons (head) are out, replaced by Sandor Earl and new recruit Etu Uaisele on the flanks. Blake Austin has been named on the bench and is expected to overcome a corked thigh that limited him to just 17 minutes last week. Danny Galea has been listed as 18th man, and Nafe Seluini will play NSW Cup. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
The Roosters made their own luck late, while the Panthers blew their great start. Injuries have diminished the already shallow Panthers roster and the Roosters might get Moga and Anasta back. I think Penrith are in this but I have to pick the Roosters.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Braith Anasta and Tautau Moga are considered very good chances to play, while Shaun Kenny-Dowall will not. Blake Austin may not play due to a corked thigh and Danny Galea would come onto the bench.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Roosters by 4.

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SUNDAY - MARCH 11
STORM $1.50 v $2.64 RABBITOHS      
SOU +6.0 | GAME STATS | @ AAMI Park, Melbourne. 7:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS
Justin Davies and Ben Hoese. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
MEL 5th SOU 11th
The Storm beat the Raiders 24-19 in Canberra, while the Rabbitohs lost 24-20 to the Roosters at ANZ.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
MEL 9 SOU 1
The Storm have wins in 9 of the last 10, with Souths only win coming in Round 16, 2010 in Perth.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS
MEL: B Slater, M Duffie, D Nielsen, J O'Neill, A Quinn, G Widdop, C Cronk, J Bromwich, C Smith (c), B Norrie, S Manu, R Hoffman, T Lowrie.
Bench: R Hinchcliffe, K Proctor, S Vave, M Greenfield, R Kostjasyn.
[Team Changes - The Storm came through their Round 1 game fine, with Michael Greenfield added to the bench and pushing Rory Kostjasyn out to 18th man. There are no other changes. ]
SOU: D Farrell, M King, S Corrigan, G Inglis, C McQueen, J Sutton, A Reynolds, S Burgess, N Peats, R Asotasi, D Taylor, E Pettybourne, M Crocker.
Bench: D Tyrrell, I Luke, S Geddes, J Clark, N Areaiiti, F Talanoa.
[Team Changes - Dylan Farrell retains the fullback job with rumours that Nathan Merritt is back in a moon boot and not back until Round 4 or 5. Chris McQueen is on the wing, with Fetuli Talanoa on the bench. John Sutton is over his cramps that forced him to leave the field and at five-eighth. Issac Luke returns from suspension on the bench, with Nathan Peats to remain the starting hooker. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
The Storm started 2012 with two bunny teams and after the Raiders they get the Bunnies. Having said that the Raiders pushed them and the Bunnies could do the same. Sam Burgess is a beast and if Dave Taylor wakes up as well... Melbourne's pack will have its work cut out. But I can't tip the Bunnies in Melbourne, or against Melbourne for that matter! Storm.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Nathan Merritt won't be right here and is in a moon boot apparently. The Storm are fine, with one of Rory Kostjasyn or Michael Greenfield to miss out.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Storm by 6.

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MONDAY - MARCH 12
EELS $2.57 v $1.52 WARRIORS     
PAR +5.5 | GAME STATS | @ Parramatta Stadium, Parramatta. 7:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS
Nigel Wilbow and Matthew Duncan. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
PAR 15th WAR 13th.
The Eels lost 18-6 at home to the Broncos, while the Warrior also lost at home 26-20 to the Sea Eagles.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
PAR 4 WAR 6
The Eels won away from home in their only meeting last year but the Warriors won both games in 2010 and have won 2 of the last 3 at Parramatta Stadium.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS
PAR: L Burt, K Sio, E Tonga, R Morgan, C Blair, B Roberts, C Sandow, T Mannah, M Keating, M Allgood, N Hindmarsh (c), T Lasalo, R Maitua.
Bench: C McGuire, FF MoiMoi, J Poore, J Horo, P O'Hanlon, J Paulo.
[Team Changes - Reni Maitua will start at lock with Justin Horo moving to the bench. Still no Willie Tonga or Jarryd Hayne but given this is a Monday game, both could still play. Ben Roberts will also be given until Monday to overcome a quad strain. Cheyse Blair holds his spot on the wing, while Pat O'Hanlon and Joseph Paulo are the extra faces on the bench. ]
WAR: K Locke, B Tupou, K Hurrell, K Inu, M Vatuvei, J Maloney, S Johnson, Sione Lousi, N Friend, B Matulino, F Mateo, S Mannering (c), E Taylor.
Bench: R Packer, U Ta'ai, B Henry, L Brown, G Fisiiahi, A Mara, S Ikahihifo.
[Team Changes - Konrad Hurrell will likely start with Jerome Ropati injured and Krisnan Inu back in the team. Sione Lousi forces Russell Packer to the bench where he joins Ben Henry who is also moved from centre. Sebastine Ikahihifo joins Glen Fisiiahi and Alehana Mara on an extended bench. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Parramatta played ok against the Broncos... but they lost a very winnable game... at home. The Warriors were done at home as well but played far better footy to get back in the contest against Manly. If the weather clears up - the Warriors could win by 20, if it stays wet, they'll still win but only by a few. Warriors please.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Jarryd Hayne and Willie Tonga could play given the game is on Monday, while Ben Roberts is in some doubt with a quad strain. The Warriors are fine.
THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Warriors by 8.

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CLICK FOR MOST RECENT UPDATE
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This year not only do you get The NRL Tweet's Tips each week but the whole NOT The Footy Show team will have their picks listed by Thursday so you can back a smoky or a favourite by seeing who we all picked (or didn't pick). 
@NRLTWEET's 2012 TIPPING RECORD 
TOTAL AFTER 1 ROUND - 5/8 @ 62.5%
SPECIAL FRIED RICE involves each tipster taking a 'certainty' in a set order, with the tipster with the highest score at the end of the year literally winning a mountain of Special Fried Rice.
ROUND 2 SELECTIONS
Sea Eagles
Broncos
Raiders
Dragons
Sharks
Roosters
Storm
Warriors
LW: 5/8 | SEASON 5/8
Special Fried Rice: WARRIORS
Season SFR: 1/1
Not on Twitter
Nic McInerney, NTFS Co-Host
Sea Eagles
Broncos
Titans
Dragons
Knights
Roosters
Storm
Warriors
LW: 5/8 | SEASON 5/8
Special Fried Rice: STORM
Season SFR: 1/1
@mrpeninsula
Sea Eagles
Broncos
Raiders
Bulldogs
Knights
Roosters
Storm
Warriors
LW: 3/8 | SEASON 3/8
Special Fried Rice: SEA EAGLES
Season SFR: 1/1

Not on Twitter
DC Chapman, NTFS Co-Host
Sea Eagles
Broncos
Raiders
Dragons
Knights
Roosters
Storm
Warriors
LW: 6/8 | SEASON 6/8
Special Fried Rice: KNIGHTS
Season SFR: 0/1

@mtsialis
Maria Tsialis, Big League Magazine
Tigers
Broncos
Titans
Dragons
Sharks
Panthers
Storm
Warriors
LW: 4/8 | SEASON 4/8
Special Fried Rice: SHARKS
Season SFR: 1/1

@GT_Tips
George 'GT' Taylor, GT's Tips Expert
Sea Eagles
Broncos
Titans
Dragons
Sharks
Roosters
Storm
Warriors
LW: 4/8 | SEASON 4/8
Special Fried Rice: BRONCOS
Season SFR: 0/1
Not on Twitter
Eyes, The Kid Who Sees All
Tigers
Cowboys
Raiders
Bulldogs
Knights
Roosters
Rabbitohs
Warriors
LW: 5/8 | SEASON 5/8
Eyes does not eat Special Fried Rice... yet.
Make sure you enter NOT The Footy Show's Tipping Competition, the outright winner walks away with an Official Steeden Match ball!
1st Prize: NRL Match Steeden Ball. 2nd to 5th: NTFS Club Mascot T-Shirts.
TIPS DONE, GO OUT AND ENJOY THE FOOTY!
If you want a full 2012 NRL Season Preview you'll need to pick yourself up a copy of the 2012 Rugby League Almanac for just $10.00 - where every team is analysed in depth and our Predicted Ladder and Premiership pick is published.


So while you go grab a copy, here is the short sharp and boldly premature 2012 Prediction for each NRL Club. If you want our Final Ladder - see the Almanac.

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By Warrick D. Nicolson