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Thursday, 22 March 2012

NRL 2012: Round 4 NRL Preview Tips Teams Predictions Late Mail Fantasy News Odds

ROUND 4 NRL TIPPING PREVIEW
By W D Nicolson 

Last week, the defending premiers were toppled in the comfy confines of Shark Park and the Roosters became the worst 2-1 team in NRL history. Can anyone topple the two undefeateds in Round 4?

For more on Round 4, check out the Podcast and Preview below.

For game-specific Late Mail every week - check back on Friday (or if there's an earlier game, earlier) for all your tipping and fantasy game needs.

Latest Podcast 21/03/2012: Download as MP3
NOT The Footy Show Episode 97 - NRL Round 4 Preview

Subscribe to the NRL Podcast by following this link NOT The Footy Show on iTunes
If you play Fantasy League Games - Dream Team, Super Coach or Fantasy NRL - our comp information is below our Preview Section.
1st Prize: NRL Match Steeden Ball. 2nd to 5th: NTFS Club Mascot T-Shirts.
NRL PREVIEW ROUND 4 - 2012
21/03 Odds are courtesy of Sportingbet Australia
For some more insight into the markets check out NOT The Footy Show's new resident tipster's site GT Tips http://www.gttips.co.uk
All Kick-Offs are LOCAL time.


FRIDAY - MARCH 23
EELS $2.15 v $1.73 PANTHERS     
PAR +2.5 | GAME STATS | @ Parramatta Stadium, Parramatta. 7:45pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS
Warrick Nicolson and Nigel Wilbow. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Parramatta are 0-3 and 16th, Penrith are 1-2 and 12th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Eels 4 Panthers 6
Penrith won both games last year, and have won 4 of the last 6 since 2008.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

PAR: L Burt, K Sio, R Morgan, W Tonga, C Blair, B Roberts, C Sandow, T Mannah, M Keating, M Allgood, N Hindmarsh (c), T Lasalo, R Maitua.
Bench: C McGuire, FF MoiMoi, J Poore, J Paulo, P O'Hanlon.
[Team Changes - Despite getting shellacked by the Cowboys in Townsville, the Eels retain 16 of the 17 man squad that got beaten, with only FuiFui MoiMoi likely to return at the expense of Pat O'Hanlon. Wow. ]

PEN: L Coote, E Uaisele, M Jennings, B Tighe, D Simmons T Burns, L Walsh, S McKendry, K Kingston, T Grant, N Smith, C Newton, L Lewis (c).
Bench: D Galea, D Weston, B Austin, R Simpkins, C Ciraldo, M Achurch.
[Team Changes - Tim Grant returns from a calf injury at prop, moving Dayne Weston to the bench. Luke Lewis and Nathan Smith swap jerseys in the backrow, while David Simmons pulled through his comeback game and is on the wing. Etu Uaisele is named in both the NRL and NSW Cup, so expect Sandor Earl to actually play instead. Ryan Simpkins is on the bench as the backup hooker, while Cameron Ciraldo is named to return from a shoulder injury and Chris Armit is out. Mitch Achurch is the 19th man. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Eels - they may have sucked deluxe so far this season but the Panthers haven't looked impressive either. This is a game that the Eels somehow win even when they aren't any good, and Penrith drop games just like this when they are expected to win. 
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Jarryd Hayne may be a very late inclusion, with a quicker than expected return from a knee injury. Cameron Ciraldo is out with a shoulder injury, while Tim Grant is reportedly a late withdrawal. The Hayne decision will come at approx 6:45pm.

THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Eels by 7.

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NOT The Footy Show Episode 97 - NRL Round 4 Video Preview

1st Prize: Your name permanent markered onto our prestigious NTFS Trophy and a NTFS T-Shirt for the Top 3 finishers.
We have two comps running in Dream Team and Super Coach.

FRIDAY - MARCH 23
RABBITOHS $2.13 v $1.75 BRONCOS     
SOU +2.0 | GAME STATS | @ NIB Stadium, Perth. 9:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS

Matthew Duncan and Michael McLucas. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
South Sydney are 1-2 and 9th, Brisbane are 2-1 and 3rd.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Rabbitohs 3 Broncos 6 Draw 1
Souths won this corresponding clash in the wet of Perth 16-12, they have split the last 4 games.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

SOU: G Inglis, A Everingham, M King, S Corrigan, D Farrell, J Sutton, A Reynolds, S Geddes, I Luke, R Asotasi, S Burgess, D Taylor, M Crocker.
Bench: C McQueen, E Pettybourne, D Tyrrell, J Clark, N Peats.
[Team Changes - Still no Nathan Merritt, but Greg Inglis is listed in the #1, with Dylan Farrell on the wing and Shaune Corrigan at centre. Jason Clark has kept Nathan Peats as 18th man for the second straight week. ]

BRI: J Hoffman, G Beale, J Reed, J Hodges, J Yow Yeh, C Norman, P Wallace, B Hannant, A McCullough, P Civoniceva, A Glenn, S Thaiday (c), B Te'o.
Bench: B Hunt, J McGuire, M Gillett, S Anderson.
[Team Changes - There are no changes for the Broncos, who beat the Knights 24-10 in Round 3. Corey Parker is at least a fortnight away after thumb surgery, possibly longer. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Broncos after watching them put the Knights away first hand last Friday night. The Bunnies on the other hand may have racked up 40 points at Penrith but they still looked soft defensively and the Broncos aren't going to let them get out to an 18-0 lead early. Hopefully the weather is better this year and the Broncos will win unless Burgess and Inglis go nuts.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - The Rabbitohs took Nathan Merritt to Perth but they say he won't play. Nathan Peats or Jason Clark will miss out. The Broncos took Dane Gagai to Perth but he is unlikely to play.

THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Broncos by 6.

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SATURDAY - MARCH 24
WARRIORS $1.26 v $4.05 TITANS       
GLD +11.5 | GAME STATS | @ Mt Smart Stadium, Auckland. 7:30pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS

Greg Delaney and TBA. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Warriors are 1-2 and 11th, Titans are 1-2 and 14th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Warriors 4 Titans 6
The Warriors won both games last year, but the Titans had won 6 straight before that.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

WAR: K Locke, B Tupou, B Henry, K Inu, M Vatuvei, J Maloney, S Johnson, Sione Lousi, N Friend, B Matulino, L Brown, S Mannering (c), E Taylor.
Bench: R Packer, F Mateo, K Hurrell, U Ta'ai, J Palavi.
[Team Changes - The Warriors have swapped rookies Konrad Hurrell and Ben Henry at centre, with Hurrell still suffering from a head knock in Round 2. Lewis Brown starts in the second row for Feleti Mateo, while John Palavi is included on the 5 man bench. ]

GLD: W Zillman, S Michaels, B Thompson, B Champion, D Peyroux, J Rankin, S Prince (c), L Bailey, M Srama, N Myles, G Bird, M Minichiello, A Harrison.
Bench: L Douglas, M White, B Ridge, K Lawton, B Lawrence.
[Team Changes - Surprisingly no changes for the struggling Titans. Bodene Thompson stays at centre for the injured Jamal Idris, while Matt Srama gets the official #9 jersey back from Kayne Lawton. Brenton Lawrence is 18th man once again. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Warriors to give the Titans a bit of a touch up. The Gold Coast can't create points, that's a major concern when you're travelling to Auckland to take on the Warriors who can score points. Do the math. 
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Sam Rapira might be a late addition to the bench and Konrad Hurrell might get a week off after two hits to the head in two weeks. John Palavi could edge out Ukuma Ta'ai to make his first grade debut, while James Maloney is in some doubt with a sore head/ankle. The Titans lost Jordan Rankin to injury before they flew out, Greg Bird goes to five-eighth and Brenton Lawrence will play. Luke Douglas, Ashley Harrison and Steve Michaels should play but are carrying injuries.

THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Warriors by 16.

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SATURDAY - MARCH 24
DRAGONS $1.75 v $2.13 SEA EAGLES       
MAN +2.0 | GAME STATS | @ WIN Jubilee Stadium, Kogarah. 7:30pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS

Matt Spillane and Maria Tsialis. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
St.George-Illawarra are 2-1 and 6th, Manly are 2-1 and 5th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Dragons 8 Sea Eagles 2
The Dragons have dominated this fixture, winning 3 straight and 4 of the last 5.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

STI: B Morris, D Vidot, K Stanley, M Cooper, J Nightingale, J Soward, B Hornby (c), D Hunt, M Rein, M Weyman, M Prior, B Creagh, D Young.
Bench: C King, J Latimore, T Merrin, J de Belin, J Miller, B Scott, L Ah Mau.
[Team Changes - Brett Morris remains at fullback, with Kyle Stanley in the centres alongside Matt Cooper who returns from an ankle injury. Daniel Vidot holds onto his wing spot, with Dan Hunt also holding his starting spot at prop. Cameron King is the new hooker on the bench after Nathan Fien's ankle injury, and Jack De Belin is battling a shoulder injury. Josh Miller, Beau Scott and Leeson Ah Mau are named on an extended bench. ]

MAN: B Stewart, M Oldfield, J Lyon (c), D Whare, D Williams, K Foran, D Cherry-Evans, J King (c), M Ballin, B Kite, A Watmough, J Buhrer, D Harrison.
Bench: V Mauro, D Lussick, T Robinson, J Annear, N Skinner, J Taufua.
[Team Changes - Manly will lose Tony Williams for at least a month if not more to a dangerous tackle charge, Manly may yet fight the grading but he will be suspended. Jamie Buhrer gets the #12 jersey, while Daniel Harrison holds onto the #13 with Glenn Stewart unlikely to return from a finger injury just yet. Jason Annear, Nick Skinner and exciting backline prospect Jorge Taufua are on an extended bench. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Sea Eagles... just. Normally we'll take the home team in games we find it hard to split these two teams, but Manly have a certain psyche that gets them up for games when they've been embarrassed the week before. The Dragons on the other hand had a good win in week one and then turned it up against the Bulldogs. Sea Eagles are the upset tip for me this weekend - even as defending premiers.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Jack de Belin might get a rest with a shoulder injury and Leeson Ah Mau or Josh Miller could get a run - so beware Fantasy owners, Beau Scott is unlikely. Dean Whare could make way for Jorge Taufua in the centres, while Nick Skinner is favoured to get a run on the bench ahead of Jason Annear.

THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Sea Eagles by 2.

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SATURDAY - MARCH 24
COWBOYS $1.45 v $2.85 SHARKS        
CRO +6.5 | GAME STATS | @ Dairy Farmers Stadium, Townsville. 8:30pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS

Michael McLucas and Justin Davies. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
North Queensland are 2-1 and 4th, Cronulla are 1-2 and 13th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Cowboys 5, Sharks 5
North Queensland won both games last year and 4 of the last 5.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

NQL: M Bowen, A Graham, B Tate, K Linnett, A Winterstein, J Thurston (c), R Thompson, M Scott (c), A Payne, J Tamou, G Cooper, G Hall, D Johnson.
Bench: J Segeyaro, J Riethmuller, A Sims, J Taumalolo, R Thorby.
[Team Changes - Ricky Thorby is the 18th man in the only addition to the 17 that tore Parramatta a new one last Saturday night. James Tamou's knee should be ok, while Cory Paterson remains in the QLD Cup. ]

CRO: N Gardner, S Mills, B Pomeroy, C Best, J Williams, T Carney, J Robson, B Gibbs, I De Gois, B Ross, J Smith, J Bukuya, P Gallen (c).
Bench: A Fifita, W Graham, J Morris, A Tupou, M Taufua, S Tagataese.
[Team Changes - Paul Gallen goes back to lock with the return of Bryce Gibbs at prop. Anthony Tupou is on the bench once again, and Wade Graham joins him after starting at lock in Round 3. Ben Pomeroy is in doubt with a dislocated finger. Mark Taufua is the new face on the bench. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Cowboys to run away with this late. We've gone with a 10 point margin here but it could be 20 if JT and Bowen have a decent lead with 60 minutes left. The Sharkies will struggle to get up for a short week and a trip to Townsville after a big win.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - The Cowboys should be 1-17 with only James Tamou (knee) in any doubt. The Sharks could be without Fan Favourite Ben Pomeroy after he dislocated a finger on Monday and Bryce Gibbs is no certainty.

THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Cowboys by 10.

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SUNDAY - MARCH 25
STORM $1.26 v $4.05 ROOSTERS         
SYD +11.5 | GAME STATS | @ AAMI Park, Melbourne. 2:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS

Greg Delaney and Matt Vickers. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Melbourne are 3-0 and 2nd, Roosters are 2-1 and 7th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Storm 6 Roosters 4
The Roosters have won 2 of the last 3 - including one at AAMI Park.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

MEL: B Slater, M Duffie, D Nielsen, J O'Neill, A Quinn, G Widdop, C Cronk, J Bromwich, C Smith (c), B Norrie, S Manu, R Hoffman, T Lowrie.
Bench: R Hinchcliffe, K Proctor, S Vave, J Ryles.
[Team Changes - The Storm suspended Maurice Blair for at least two weeks for an off-field incident, with Dane Nielsen returning from some broken teeth in the centres. Todd Lowrie was charged with a low grade high tackle and will play with an early guilty plea. Rory Kostjasyn drops off an extended bench. ]

SYD: A Minichiello, J Carney, J Leilua, S Kenny-Dowall, S Perrett, B Anasta (c), M Pearce, J Waerea-Hargreaves, J Friend, M Kennedy, B Cordner, M Aubusson, F-P Nuuausala.
Bench: T Arona, M Masoe, L Tasi, D Mortimer.
[Team Changes - The Roosters have made just one change with Aiden Guerra out with a ankle sprain and Boyd Cordner comes back in to start in the second row. No Tautau Moga still, but he must be close to returning at some point, with Joseph Leilua likely to make way when Moga does. Daniel Mortimer holds his bench spot ahead of Anthony Mitchell. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Storm to move to 4-0. Look the Roosters aren't without hope but are you seriously considering them? No. So like me, you'll pick the Storm.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - The Storm should be 1-17 although beware Craig Bellamy loves a late change and Sika Manu might get a rest. The Roosters may (again) have Tautau Moga come in for Joseph Leilua or Justin Carney.

THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Storm by 12.

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SUNDAY - MARCH 26
BULLDOGS $1.45 v $2.85 KNIGHTS       
NEW +6.5 | GAME STATS | @ ANZ Stadium, Homebush. 3:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS

Matt Spillane and Ben Hoese. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Canterbury are 3-0 and 1st, Newcastle are 1-2 and 10th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Bulldogs 4 Knights 6
The Dogs won their only clash last year at ANZ Stadium, but the Knights have won 4 of the last 6.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

CBY: B Barba, S Turner, J Morris, J Wright, B Goodwin, J Reynolds, T Hodkinson, A Tolman, M Ennis (c), S Kasiano, F Pritchard, D Halatau, D Stagg.
Bench: J Graham, G Eastwood, C Payne, J Romelo.
[Team Changes - No changes for the Dogs other than Martin Taupau being left out of the 18 and returned to the NSW Cup. This is a settled lineup, which makes sense at 3-0. ]

NEW: D Boyd, J McManus, T Tahu, J Sa'u, A Uate, T Roberts, J Mullen, K Snowden, D Buderus (c), A Cuthbertson, C Houston, Z Taia, N Costigan.
Bench: M Hilder, R Fa'aoso, J Edwards, A McKinnon, Z Tetevano.
[Team Changes - Wes Naiqama will miss at least a month with a knee injury, while Akuila Uate, Jarrod Mullen and Adam Cuthbertson are under minor injury clouds. Junior Sa'u comes in at centre, and Tyrone Roberts is the newest five-eighth selection for Wayne Bennett... but don't hold your breath that he'll actually play. Zane Tetevano is the new man on an extended bench, with Marvin Filipo dropping out. ]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Bulldogs in a close one. The Knights will give them a fright as defensively I think they aim up, but the Dogs at home with 3 wins in the bank are the smart pick. But if you are searching for an upset - go with the Knights.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - The Dogs should be 1-17 - although Joel Romelo could make way for another forward, the Knights may switch Tyrone Roberts and Matt Hilder to start the game, Ryan Stig may also be a late addition and so could be Kurt Gidley...

THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Bulldogs by 6.

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MONDAY - MARCH 20
TIGERS $2.64 v $1.50 RAIDERS        
CAN +7.5 | GAME STATS | @ Campbelltown Stadium, Campbelltown. 7:00pm Kick-Off.

NRL TWEET PLAYER OF THE YEAR VOTERS

Warrick Nicolson and Matthew Duncan. Follow #NRLTweetPOTY for every Vote in 2012.
COMING IN
Wests Tigers are 1-2 and 15th, Raiders are 1-2 and 8th.
HEAD TO HEAD LAST 10
Tigers 8 Raiders 2
The Tigers have won the last 7 straight, enough said.
TUESDAY TEAM NEWS

WTG: T Humble, B Ryan, B Ayshford, C Lawrence, J Reddy, B Marshall (c), T Moltzen, A Woods, L Fulton, M Groat, A Blair, G Ellis, C Heighington.
Bench: S Meaney, B Murdoch-Masila, M Bell, J Moors.
[Team Changes - Robbie Farah is out for two weeks suspended, Liam Fulton starts at hooker, with Sean Meaney the utility on the bench with Junior Moors, Ben Murdoch-Masila and Matthew Bell. Gareth Ellis is listed to return in the second row. Benji Marshall is the new skipper. Pat Politoni may come into the 17 later in the week. ]

CAN: B Ferguson, D Pelo, J Croker, S Berrigan, J Wighton, T Campese (c), J McCrone, D Shillington, G Buttriss, B White, J Thompson, B Harrison, J Papalii.
Bench: T Waddell, J Picker, S Mataora, T Learoyd-Lahrs, J Kennedy.
[Team Changes - Dugan, Fensom and Thurling are out, Ferguson is at fullback, Joel Thompson in the second row and Josh Papalii goes to lock. Tom Learoyd-Lahrs is named on the bench after being a late starter in Round 3, Dimitri Pelo comes in on the wing, and Glen Buttriss starts for Travis Waddell who goes to the bench. Sam Mataora, Joe Picker and Jarrad Kennedy are the new faces on the bench]
THURSDAY GAME PREVIEW
Listen to the Podcast for a full preview, but we like the Tigers - simply because Canberra have blown two games they should've won and last week were a rabble in attack against a Roosters side that was even worse. Benji will tear Canberra apart on Monday night footy.
TIPPING AND FANTASY LATE MAIL
SMH and Other Late Mail - Gareth Ellis should play having had two weeks off to recover from a corked thigh, Jacob Miller could come in at halfback with Tim Moltzen going back to fullback and Sean Meaney missing out on the bench. Canberra will decide between Jarrad Kennedy and Sam Mataora for their final bench spot. Reece Robinson is also in line for an early comeback from a cheekbone injury, with Dimitri Pelo to miss out if Robinson is fit.

THE NRL TWEET'S PICK
Tigers by 10.

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CLICK FOR MOST RECENT UPDATE
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This year not only do you get The NRL Tweet's Tips each week but the whole NOT The Footy Show team will have their picks listed by Thursday so you can back a smoky or a favourite by seeing who we all picked (or didn't pick). 
@NRLTWEET's 2012 TIPPING RECORD 
TOTAL AFTER 3 ROUNDS - 14/24 @ 58.3%
SPECIAL FRIED RICE involves each tipster taking a 'certainty' in a set order, with the tipster with the highest score at the end of the year literally winning a mountain of Special Fried Rice.
ROUND 4 SELECTIONS
Eels
Broncos
Warriors
Sea Eagles
Cowboys
Storm
Bulldogs
Tigers
LW: 5/8 | SEASON 14/24
Special Fried Rice: BRONCOS
Season SFR: 2/3
Not on Twitter
Nic McInerney, NTFS Co-Host
Panthers
Broncos
Warriors
Sea Eagles
Cowboys
Storm
Bulldogs
Tigers
LW: 4/8 | SEASON 13/24
Special Fried Rice: TIGERS
Season SFR: 3/3
@mrpeninsula
Eels
Broncos
Warriors
Sea Eagles
Cowboys
Storm
Knights
Raiders
LW: 4/8 | SEASON: 13/24
Special Fried Rice: COWBOYS
Season SFR: 3/3

Not on Twitter
DC Chapman, NTFS Co-Host
Panthers
Broncos
Warriors
Dragons
Cowboys
Storm
Bulldogs
Tigers
LW: 4/8 | SEASON 15/24
Special Fried Rice: BULLDOGS
Season SFR: 2/3

@mtsialis
Maria Tsialis, Big League Magazine
Eels
Rabbitohs
Warriors
Dragons
Sharks
Storm
Bulldogs
Raiders
LW: 4/8 | SEASON 11/24
Special Fried Rice: WARRIORS
Season SFR: 1/3

@GT_Tips
George 'GT' Taylor, GT's Tips Expert
Eels
Broncos
Warriors
Dragons
Cowboys
Storm
Knights
Tigers
LW: 4/8 | SEASON 11/24
Special Fried Rice: STORM
Season SFR: 0/3
Not on Twitter
Eyes, The Kid Who Sees All
Panthers
Rabbitohs
Titans
Sea Eagles
Cowboys
Roosters
Bulldogs
Tigers (I convinced him not to pick Canberra)
LW: 3/8 | SEASON 13/24
Eyes does not eat Special Fried Rice... yet.
Make sure you enter NOT The Footy Show's Tipping Competition, the outright winner walks away with an Official Steeden Match ball!
1st Prize: NRL Match Steeden Ball. 2nd to 5th: NTFS Club Mascot T-Shirts.
TIPS DONE, GO OUT AND ENJOY THE FOOTY!
If you want a full 2012 NRL Season Preview you'll need to pick yourself up a copy of the 2012 Rugby League Almanac for just $10.00 - where every team is analysed in depth and our Predicted Ladder and Premiership pick is published.


So while you go grab a copy, here is the short sharp and boldly premature 2012 Prediction for each NRL Club. If you want our Final Ladder - see the Almanac.

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