Thursday 13 March 2014

#NRL 2014: Round 2 Tips Late Mail Preview | #NRLFantasy #NRLSuperCoach #NRLDreamTeam

Round 2 Tips and Late Mail 

2014 National Rugby League Premiership

By W D Nicolson - March 13, 2014

Round 1 was woeful... okay, 0/8 would've been woeful - but 2/8 keeps's Round by Round Tips in very average expert mode. But the good news is The Postman's Late Mail was half decent...

|-| If you play any form of Fantasy Footy in 2014 - The Postman's Friday Trades Article is compulsory reading.

Remember our Previews are now purely the essentials in 2014 - I'll try to write very little fluff and you'll simply (entertainingly) get my read on each game and insightful Late Mail.

Check out the Votes from Round 1 of the @NRLTweet Player of the Year Award here.

Listen to our 2014 Season Preview Podcast
The 'Special Fried Rice' picks have returned but given it is me v me, every week - I'll just be listing my 'SFR' of the week with the FootyTab Starts as the variation aspect to keep things interesting vs just saying 'this team will win this week - guaranteed'.

HEADS UP: We do have an NRL Tipping Comp for listeners of NOT The Footy Show - go here for the details.

So let's see if I can improve from that outstanding 25% tipping percentage in Round 1... to the Tips!

All tips are subject to last minute changes, Game Odds/FootyTab are from Wednesday night and do not update thereafter.
Friday at Gosford 7:45pm or 8:05pm
Sea Eagles $2.70 v $1.48 Rabbitohs
FOOTYTABMAN +4.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List
Well Manly blew a 20-0 lead at home and the Rabbitohs gave the Roosters an early lead then ran over them to win by 20 points. So really... what do you do at a neutral venue? Despite the game being at Gosford it is Manly's 'home' game and these two have had good battles of late on Friday nights... and of course in the Preliminary Final last year. No Brett Stewart is a worry but something tells me Manly put an 80 minute performance in this week and I've got them to edge the Rabbitohs... for really no apparent reason other than 'away' teams killed me last week. Sea Eagles by 2 points.
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters for #NRLManSou:
| M Vickers @MercurialMattyV |
| T Schroder @troy_79 |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
LATEST OF LATE MAIL from The Postman:
MAN - Williams (knee) should take his place on the wing after being named, while Lyon and Matai got through Round 1 despite having to pass fitness tests the day before. King remains a game time decision despite being named. Glenn Stewart is OUT... with Sene-Lefao coming in
SOU - Got a hunch we'll see Tyrrell start at prop and George Burgess go to the bench so Maguire can try and take advantage of Manly's bench props with GB. McQueen's ankle has struggled all week and he's out - replaced by Kyle Turner coming into the squad.

Friday at Suncorp 7:40pm (QLD)
Broncos $2.10 v $1.75 Cowboys
FOOTYTABBRI +2.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List
Tipping against JT and with BH? Yes I'm crazy but I also think the Broncos played pretty well to beat the Bulldogs and defensively they aimed up. Sure the Dogs didn't have JT running things like the Cowboys do, but still - a defensive win is a win and I really like them early in the season. This is in Townsville and I pick North Queensland, but it isn't and Brisbane have you know - Ben Hunt. Broncos by 4 points.
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters for #NRLBriNql:
| J Gemmell @godofcheeseau |
| J Davies @DragonPunk12 |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
LATEST OF LATE MAIL from The Postman:
BRI - Sneaky chance that David Stagg is back on the bench? If fit he makes the most sense, especially if Lowrie hasn't recovered from his head knock. That would leave only one spot for Wallace or Hala.
NQL - Joel Riethmuller made 18th man at the toss, Ashton Sims to bench and Glenn Hall at lock.
Saturday at Eden Park 5:00pm (NZ)
Warriors $1.31 v $3.55 Dragons
FOOTYTAB: STI +6.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List
Yikes... you almost have to pick the Warriors here because they weren't utterly horrible against Parra (the Eels were actually just better to be honest) and they are at home with the crowd well and truly behind them at Eden Park. As for the Dragons - well I was at both games involving these teams and the Dragons had their opponent roll over and out of the way en route to 44 points - though Widdop was outstanding. Got the Saints for the spoon so they can't really start 2-0 for that to happen... look for the Tomkins-Johnson duo to carve up. Warriors by 10 points.
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters for #NRLWarSgi:
| M Perry @Chandler_BANG |
| V Parmar @vinnyparmar |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
LATEST OF LATE MAIL from The Postman:
WAR - Does Elliott make more changes at kick-off? Tuimavave got dispatched rather harshly given Bukuya and Johnson had more issues than he did with Manu Ma'u, and Ropati gets one last chance to play a full season you feel at right centre. Henry may also start at lock with Pavali to the bench. Update: David Fusitua replaces Manu Vatuvei on the wing.
STI - Frizell is now a prop evidently, while Harrison gets a chance to prove he still belongs in the NRL and simply must take it given the depth in the backrow at the Dragons right now.
Saturday at AAMI 5:30pm
Storm $1.36 v Panthers $3.25
FOOTYTABPEN +8.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List
Cronk is back and Melbourne came back emphatically last week to beat Manly... good combination for mine. Penrith were very composed in their win over an injury hit Knights but they might get a rude shock early against the Storm. That said I don't think Melbourne win by 30 here but I don't want to pick Penrith on the road based on the factors contributing to their Round 1 win here. Storm by 12 points.
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters for #NRLMelPen:
| D McLucas @DMcLucas28 |
| M McLucas @Jebadude |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
LATEST OF LATE MAIL from The Postman:
MEL - It's doubtful that Melbourne would've named Cronk with no intention of playing him - not that Bellamy's never done that before - but because this is their first home game of the season. Justin O'Neill is probably another week away... then again.
PEN - Idris and Grant may yet take a seat on the plane to Melbourne... so don't count your Yeo or Latimore playing chickens yet. Word Friday is that Soward's back is no good... with Isaac John on standby.
Saturday at Allianz 7:30pm
Roosters $1.28 v $3.80 Eels
FOOTYTABPAR +14.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List
I was impressed by Parra last Sunday - but the Premiers should win and win well this week. The Roosters got outmuscled by Souths in the middle and their pack won't let that happen against Parra's pack. Might be close by halftime but Roosters by plenty by fulltime. And that's not saying Parra won't play okay - but I expect the Chooks to click into gear here. Roosters by 18 points.
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters for #NRLSydPar:
| W Nicolson @NRLTweet |
| B Hoese @GunnerMcDagget |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
LATEST OF LATE MAIL from The Postman:
SYD - Napa may get a late reprieve ahead of Evans or Casty but Robinson is likely to stick with his named squad. Does Guerra start for Nuuausala again?
PAR - Does Liam Foran come into the squad and perhaps start for Pritchard? That would mean Terepo could miss out. But Arthur doesn't play silly selections often - so stick with Pritchard starting as the likely play right?
Sunday at Gold Coast 2:00pm (QLD)
Titans $1.31 v $3.55 Tigers
FOOTYTABWTG +8.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List
The Titans had enough ball to win two games against the Sharks... and barely won that game. The Tigers started like a house on fire against the Dragons - then stopped tackling. Not a good combination for either side but the Titans aren't playing at Leichhardt and the Tigers lost to one of the two teams I had going worse than them in 2014... Titans almost by default, though watch for Luke Brooks to have a far better game for the visitors. Titans by 7 points.
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters for #NRLGldWst:
| D Chapman @Mr_DC11 |
| T Schroder @troy_79 |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
LATEST OF LATE MAIL from The Postman:
GLD - James is probably ready to return but he needs Douglas to be ruled out with a thumb injury to get a run. Though that is likely... unless it was ironman Douglas we were talking about.
WTG - Nofoaluma and Galloway need to get through a full week of training to be considered, Koroibete and Seumanufagai probably miss out. Moses and Simona may be another week away, while Fulton may withdraw due to his head knock last weekend. Updated: Nofoaluma comes in for Koroibete and Galloway for Fulton. Austin is 18th man.
Sunday at Hunter 6:30pm
Knights $1.53 v $2.55 Raiders
FOOTYTABCAN +6.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List
If Canberra leave Newcastle defeated and then miss the Top 8 by season's end by 2 or 4 points - they only have themselves to blame. They had a big lead at North Queensland and lost and now the Knights are without Boyd and Mullen - so both games were/are clearly winnable. As for Newcastle - I like Gidley at fullback personally (it is his position) but they need Roberts and Gidley 100% fit after their head knocks and the forwards simply must hold the pill. Game location decides this. Knights by 6 points.
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters for #NRLNewCan:
| G Delaney @AussieGreg84 |
| N Wilbow @parramatters |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
LATEST OF LATE MAIL from The Postman:
NEW - Roberts and Gidley should play at this stage but Bennett did pick Minto and Mamo as cover just in case they get any symptoms later in the week. Smith played with a sore knee last week but should be fine.
CAN - Shillington and Learoyd-Lahrs are unlikely to be back til next weekend, meaning Stuart probably sticks with the same 17 as last week. Cornish and Hawkins had big games in NSW Cup according to people who watched the match but again, Stuart is unlikely to make changes until the team's record may force him to.
Monday at ANZ 7:05pm
Bulldogs $1.40 v $3.00 Sharks
FOOTYTABCRO +4.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List
Do I have to favour one team here? The Dogs looked lifeless with pretty much a full strength backline, while the Sharks go into this game without two (if not 3) of their most important players with no Gallen, Fifita and maybe no Carney. Dogs by default but really - if the Sharks hadn't let a chance to win a game they shouldn't have won pass them by against the Titans in Round 1 - I'd almost pick Cronulla here. But no. Bulldogs by 2 points.
@NRLTweet Player of the Year Award Voters for #NRLCbyCro:
| W Nicolson @NRLTweet |
| M Duncan @MrPeninsula |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
LATEST OF LATE MAIL from The Postman:
CBY - Do we see Tim Lafai? He is named to play NSW Cup and is clearly a first choice centre for Hasler... and with Brown in doubt he may come in. Eastwood may also be a late starter for Browne. Mbye could also squeeze into the 17.
CRO - Carney is the biggest question mark - with Ryan a slight chance of playing despite not being named. Gallen, Fifita and Vave drop out so it will be interesting to see where Graham plays if Carney doesn't if his hamstring is no good. Tim Robinson and David Fifita are likely to join the bench. Update: Carney is out, and De Gois has been dropped. Manumalealii will debut at five-eighth and Lichaa on the bench. As will David Fifita on the bench.
Warrick D. Nicolson, The NRL Tweet
Sea Eagles, Broncos, Warriors, Storm, Roosters, Titans, Knights, Bulldogs.
LW: 2/8 | SEASON: 2/8
MAN +4.5, BRI +2.5, WAR -6.5, MEL -8.5, SYD -14.5, WTG +8.5, CAN +6.5, CRO +4.5.
LW: 2/8 | SEASON: 2/8
Special Fried Rice: Roosters -14.5 | Season SFR: 0/1
NQL -10.5, SYD -14.5, 
TIPPING Record after 1 Rounds - 2/8 @ 25.0%
FOOTYTAB Record after 1 Rounds - 2/8 @ 25.0%
SPECIAL FRIED RICE after 1 Rounds - 0/1 @ 0.0%
Subscribe to the NOT The Footy Show Podcast on iTunes here and although we're not sure how often we'll record this year - it's worth being prepared right?