Round 1 Tips and Late Mail 2014 National Rugby League Premiership
By W D Nicolson - March 5, 2014
Follow @NRLTweet
But let's be clear from the start - it's essential time in 2014 - I'll try to write very little fluff and you'll simply (entertainingly) get my read on each game and the best Late Mail online.
 |
| Listen to our 2014 Season Preview Podcast |
HEADS UP: We do have an NRL Tipping Comp for listeners of NOT The Footy Show - go here for the details.
So let's get off to a good start in Round 1 and see if I can reach the lofty heights of a 65-70% tipping success rate (went at almost 63% last year but were good and terrible at times). 65% is harder than it sounds people... mind you I tipped at less than that in 2010 and won a few online prizes so... maybe it's really all about tipping relatively well in any given year.
ROUND 1 TIPS and LATE MAIL
All tips are subject to last minute changes, Game Odds/FootyTab are from Wednesday night and do not update thereafter.
Thursday at ANZ 8:05pm
FOOTYTAB: SOU +2.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Souths may yet have Reynolds and Walker in the lineup but tell me where the Roosters have a weakness going into Round 1 and you'll really impress me. Souths can certainly win this and backing against them at home only makes sense if the Premiers are the ones beating them. Roosters by 6 points.
| W Nicolson @NRLTweet |
| M Duncan @MrPeninsula |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
SOU - Reynolds (knee) and Walker (hamstring) will be game time decisions... expect Sutton to half and either Reddy or maybe even Lowe to five-eighth as defensive stoppers.
SYD - Not expecting any changes - especially with Casty missing out on the squad altogether (mind you, is he hurt?). Napa seems a safe bet in your DT/SC/NRLF sides and either he, Aubusson or Guerra might be a smoky to start ahead of Nuuausala.
Friday at ANZ 8:05pmBulldogs $1.55 v $2.50 BroncosFOOTYTAB: BRI +4.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
This is the first gut feel pick of the year... and I still don't like it. Look the Broncos may be a good team this year, and so might the Bulldogs but the difference - get ready for the most unoriginal thought of the season so far - is in my mind: Ben Barba. He wins this game off the back of the Brisbane pack standing up to Canterbury's behind Corey Parker. At least that's how the gut is thinking... where's that sandwich? Broncos by 2 points.| To Be Announced Thursday |
| To Be Announced Thursday |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
CBY - There's a chance... oh so small... that Thompson plays at fullback and Perrett on the wing. Can also see Mbye getting a run on the bench instead of Browne if Reynolds (shoulder) isn't considered 100% going into the game.
BRI - Who lines up at five-eighth? Well Hoffman's wearing 6... so I guess it'll be him. Brisbane look relatively healthy assuming Barba (foot) is...
Saturday at Penrith 4:30pmPanthers $1.75 v $2.10 KnightsFOOTYTAB: NEW +1.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Don't like relying on Soward and Wallace to win games at the start of the year... and actually think Roberts might thrive without Mullen (though Newcastle would be better with both obviously). But I like Newcastle's pack and have a feeling the class in their backline might be the difference here - even on the road. Knights by 6 points.| To Be Announced Thursday |
| To Be Announced Thursday |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
PEN - Idris (hamstring) and Grant (ribs) are reportedly in serious doubt, with Brown likely to go to the centres, and two of McKendry, Plum or Peachey to start in the pack. Yeo and Latimore would join the bench. Soward (ankle) is also no certainty with John ready to come in if required.
NEW - Smith (knee) may not play, which is why Fa'alogo is 18th man. McKinnon or Houston would start at lock.
Saturday at Brookvale 7:00pmSea Eagles $1.55 v $2.50 StormFOOTYTAB: MEL +4.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
If there's no Lyon (foot), then I start to worry about this tip... mainly because 3/4 of Manly's 3/4 line from last year's Grand Final would be out - and the other 1/4 - Matai is in a little bit of doubt himself! Melbourne will miss Cronk should he also miss with a shoulder injury, and despite Smith and Slater both playing - just like the DCE-Foran factor at Brookie a little more. Sea Eagles by 4 points.| To Be Announced Thursday |
| To Be Announced Thursday |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
MAN - Was told Lyon (foot) won't play on Tuesday by a source that isn't known for making stuff up... so let's see if the mail is accurate. Matai (ankle) should play, while Hiku could end up in the centres for Lyon with Blair and Gutherson or Satini on the wings. Knowing Toovey - wouldn't be stunned to see a change on the bench with Sene-Lefao the one I worry for actually getting a run...
MEL - Cronk (shoulder) may indeed travel but Melbourne aren't likely to risk him (right?)... so Roberts will likely play in the halves. Hinchcliffe (ankle) may also be a late withdrawal despite being named with Harris likely to start if that's the case.
Saturday at Townsville 8:00pm (QLD Time/9pm NSW)Cowboys $1.30 v $3.60 RaidersFOOTYTAB: CAN +10.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Canberra are a chance here kids... if they defend well in the first 20 minutes then it's game on (early season games can be won purely on defence remember). They let in a soft try or two to the magician called Thurston and then - this is over early. That said - there's something about a host of youngsters on a bench that screams 'enthusiasm' when it comes to defence... so as I said - I can't rule out the Raiders, though I think the Cowboys win by more than a converted try. Cowboys by 12 points.| To Be Announced Thursday |
| To Be Announced Thursday |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
NQL - Expect them to run out 1-17 with A Sims and Santo missing out.
CAN - Likewise - Stuart has his squad with Nicholls, Tupou and Sauiluma likely travelling but not playing.
Sunday at ANZ 3:00pmDragons $1.85 v $2.00 TigersFOOTYTAB: WTG +1.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
I have no idea... both teams don't do much for me but the Tigers should have Farah and that's enough for me. Dragons will win the game if their kicking inside the 20m zone pays off with a four or five tries... the Tigers just need to defend the kick and their job will be a whole lot easier. Neutral ground so I'm going the Tigers assuming Farah runs out moderately healthy. Tigers by 1 points.| To Be Announced Thursday |
| To Be Announced Thursday |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
STI - Given the second rower heavy bench - don't be surprised if Hunt drops to the bench and Creagh starts at prop - giving Thompson or Frizell a starting reprieve in the 2nd row. Beale (jaw) should be fine.
WTG - Farah, Richards and Woods (boils???) have a few extra days to get over their ailment and I expect all of them to play. Slight doubts over Sue/Seumanufagai but again, they should play.
Sunday at Parramatta 6:30pmEels $2.50 v $1.55 WarriorsFOOTYTAB: PAR +4.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Last year I picked the Warriors on the road to beat Parra and the Eels won by plenty... based on the Tomkins arrival alone... well I'm going to get bitten again but I don't want to pick Parra before I see what style Brad Arthur gets them to play. And while I think it will be a good open style... the Warriors might just be better at it first up on Sunday night. Tomkins is a gun people, like best player in the Super League kind of gun. We're lucky to have him here. Warriors by 10 points.| To Be Announced Thursday |
| To Be Announced Thursday |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
PAR - Tanginoa (foot) is back after the club reported they didn't know when he would be just a week ago - so he may not play giving Gower or Allgood a chance if KT misses.
WAR - Not expecting changes but Nielsen (hip) has made a quickish recovery from what I believed was a longer term problem. I'd say that's why Ropati is 18th man. Vatuvei (knee) should be good to go.
Monday at Cronulla 7:05pmSharks $1.67 v $2.25 TitansFOOTYTAB: GLD +4.5 Teams Analysed on our NRL Injured List
@NRLTweet's PREDICTION:
Lucky last... could be a surprising game in terms of quality - despite not appearing to be the sexiest game of the weekend by the time we get to Monday Night Footy. If Carney doesn't play then the Titans have a golden opportunity to get a great early road win but I don't think I can pick them on the road while Carney remains a chance. Fifita and Gallen to have a field day up the middle... Sharks by 8 points.| To Be Announced Thursday |
| To Be Announced Thursday |
Track live round votes via #NRLTweetPOTY
CRO - Graham (infection) is in doubt... but the weekend should be kind, while Ryan (neck) and Carney (hamstring) should also benefit from a full weekend watching footy and not playing it. Though as of Friday - Ryan is more of a chance to play than Carney... with Leutele and Grothe on standby.
GLD - Let's see if James (shoulder) travels - if he does - he'll play. Still question marks on Falloon (hamstring) and Harrison (hand) as well - so a big squad may actually travel.
ROUND 1 PICK SUMMARY |
| @NRLTweet |
Roosters, Broncos, Knights, Sea Eagles, Cowboys, Tigers, Warriors, Sharks.
LW: 0/0 | SEASON: 0/0
FOOTYTAB:
SYD -2.5, BRI +4.5, NEW +1.5, MEL +4.5, NQL -10.5, WTG +1.5, WAR -4.5, CRO -4.5.
LW: 0/0 | SEASON: 0/0
Special Fried Rice: Cowboys -10.5 | Season SFR: 0/0
TIPPING Record after 0 Rounds - 0/0 @ 0.0%
FOOTYTAB Record after 0 Rounds - 0/0 @ 0.0%
SPECIAL FRIED RICE after 0 Rounds - 0/0 @ 0.0%
Subscribe to the NOT The Footy Show Podcast on iTunes here and although we're not sure how often we'll record this year - it's worth being prepared right?
