Friday 13 December 2013

#NFL 2013: Week 15 Picks - Head to Head and with Spread | #nflpicks #nflpickem

2013 NFL PICKS - WEEK 15
- AFC and NFC Picks - Head to Head and with the Spread -
By The Postman, December 13, 2013

WEEKLY RECAP: Head to Head is back in business with a good 11-5 to follow a 10-6. Back up to the 89th percentile with a 129-78 record and with just three weeks to go - let's aim for a final tipping percentage of over 65% if it is at all possible. Spread was better than last week's 4-11 at 9-7 but it wasn't particularly good. Still we're in striking range of a 50% tipping rate with the Spread so that has to be the aim.

H2H UPSETS PICKED: Stick with the favourites kids... went for 5 upsets in Week 14 and got just Jacksonville on Thursday... the only game I missed was Miami over Pittsburgh, otherwise really I shoulder stuck with the favourites and picked up an easy 12 or 13 tips last week. Tipped 1 from 5 Upsets Correct for Week 14 (per Pick'Em favourite/underdog listing).

H2H LESSONS LEARNED: San Franciso might be okay if they played Seattle at San Fran next time (they won't), while Dallas and Detroit lost games that may have had a huge bearing on their playoff chances given... well they did and these two lost. Don't pick Houston kids... they want the 1st overall pick, while Jacksonville are working their way out of the Top 3 by winning... Other than that, Tampa Bay proved Buffalo are also also-rans like them, while New Orleans put Carolina in their place. And didn't Kansas City need that win over a dud opponent to get their campaign back on track?

Our Week 15 Picks are up next...

Not gonna happen... thanks Atlanta
My 2013 NFL Season Preview and SuperBowl picks are here - and every week throughout the NFL in 2013 I will be posting my picks here on and via @wdnicolson.

Last year in the Yahoo! Sports Pro Football Pick'em competition I managed to finish in the 98th percentile (so Top 2%) of tipsters across the world... completely surprising myself by using the rule of thumb I (for some reason) refuse to back entirely in my NRL Tipping (that is pick favourites and then pick favourites and then, and only then... pick favourites and maybe one or two gut picks - which doesn't hurt you as much with up to 16 NFL games a week v 8 NRL games).

Week 15 begins with the last Thursday Night game of the season with San Diego visiting Denver (Friday morning Australian time). Then we'll be able to publish our picks at a more decent time... like Friday lunchtime.
=====WEEK 15 PICKS=====

Head to Head Picks per Yahoo! Pick'Em Overall League:
TNF: Denver over San Diego; SunF: Atlanta over Washington, Chicago over Cleveland+, Indianapolis over Houston, New England over Miami, Philadelphia over Minnesota, Seattle over NY Giants, San Francisco over Tampa Bay, Jacksonville over Buffalo*, Kansas City over Oakland, Carolina over NY Jets, Dallas over Green Bay, Arizona over Tennessee, New Orleans over St Louis; SNF: Cincinnati over Pittsburgh; MNF: Detroit over Baltimore.
Quick Notes: Just two upsets this week with Chicago on the road and Jacksonville at home. That said, I can make a case for Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Washington (with Cousins at QB) and especially Tennessee at home to the Cardinals. But stick favourite side kids.
* Home Upset + Away Upset
Year to Date: 129/207 @ 62.3%
Week 1: 11-5 (Overall Rank 20,862 - 65th percentile)
Week 2: 10-6 (Overall Rank 25,998 - 59th percentile)
Week 3: 8-8 (Overall Rank 20,274 - 64th percentile)
Week 4: 10-6 (Overall Rank 21,269 - 68th percentile)
Week 5: 7-7 (Overall Rank 24,952 - 63rd percentile)
Week 6: 12-3 (Overall Rank 13,877 - 79th percentile)
Week 7: 11-4 (Overall Rank 6,721 - 90th percentile)
Week 8: 11-2 (Overall Rank 5,393 - 92nd percentile)
Week 9: 7-6 (Overall Rank 6,534 - 90th percentile)
Week 10: 7-7 (Overall Rank 6,367 - 90th percentile)
Week 11: 9-6 (Overall Rank 7,359 - 89th percentile)
Week 12: 6-7 with 1 tie (Overall Rank 7,498 - 89th percentile)
Week 13: 10-6 (Overall Rank 8,255 - 88th percentile)
Week 14: 11-5 (Overall Rank 7,749 - 89th percentile)
'With the Spread' Picks per my Yahoo! Pick'Em League:
Denver -10.5, Washington +6.5, Chicago +1.0, Indianapolis -5.5, New England -2.5, Philadelphia -4.5, Seattle -7.0, San Francisco -5.5, Jacksonville +2.0, Kansas City -4.5, Carolina -11.0, Dallas (no line), Arizona -2.5, New Orleans -6.5, Cincinnati -3.0, Baltimore +6.0.
Year to Date: 96-106-6 @ 47.5%
Week 1: 4-11-1
Week 2: 6-10-0
Week 3: 8-7-1
Week 4: 10-5-0
Week 5: 6-8-0
Week 6: 8-7-0
Week 7: 11-4-0
Week 8: 10-3-0
Week 9: 4-9-0
Week 10: 6-8-0
Week 11: 3-9-3
Week 12: 7-7-0
Week 13: 4-11-1
Week 14: 9-7
You can tweet me your NFL picks every week @wdnicolson and I will list my final picks from that account every Thursday Night.
You can join the Pro Football Pick'em League I'm in here - which is a 'SPREAD' competition (Tony Kornheiser's Radio Show Group - so if you join best you are somewhat familiar with who TK is and possibly his radio show or PTI). | Group ID#: 35104 | Password: andy | Or just join the regular Pick'em Overall league.
During 2013 I will be reading Peter King's 'THE MMQB' Website every week - I suggest you do the same.