Saturday, 28 February 2026

2026 NRL Season Predictions: Top 8 and Premiers - NOT The Footy Show

By Warrick Nicolson. Published February 28, 2026.

NOT The Footy Show let you, and ourselves, down in 2025 no shows at all and on behalf of Robb Cox, I apologise. Are we finished? Never say never, but the stars just didn't align in 2025 to allow us to give it our best shot at producing shows.

I did manage to get out a full set of written predictions, and finished with 6 of 8 teams who played Finals correct, but gee I got some wrong.

The Warriors put egg on my face by finishing 5th after I had them with Wooden Spoon, and conversely my faith in Manly (picked to be 3rd and finishing 10th), the Gold Coast (picked to be 10th but finished 16th) and Newcastle (picked to be 9th and getting the Spoon) was misplaced. Whilst I had Redcliffe getting the 8th spot ahead of Easts in 10th, they practically swapped places finishing 9th and and 8th respectively.

I also had Melbourne v Manly in the decider, but at least I picked Melbourne (who ended up runner's up) to win the thing... Brisbane who I had in 4th was actually right on the money for placing, but I didn't think they'd get near a Premiership.

And boy was I wrong.

To 2026... and the dart throws continue.

Here they are, Warrick Nicolson's 2026 NRL Predictions.

True Contenders

1. Melbourne Storm - Minor Premiers

2. Canberra Raiders

3.  Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

4.  Brisbane Broncos

5.  Penrith Panthers

Should Play Finals

6. Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks

7. Sydney Roosters

8. Redcliffe Dolphins

Missing the Cut

9. New Zealand Warriors

10. Parramatta Eels

Next Rung Of Mediocrity

11.  South Sydney Rabbitohs

12. North Queensland Cowboys

13. Wests Tigers

14.  St George-Illawarra Dragons

2026 Spoon Bowl

15.  Gold Coast Titans

16.  Newcastle Knights

17. Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles


2026 Regular Season Awards:

  • Dally M: Nathan Cleary - I think Penrith aren't all powerful like in they have been, but he wills them home in enough games to outpoll Cameron Munster and Reece Walsh.
  • Top Tryscorer: Sua Fa'alogo - he is going to be a monster if he stays fit and might crack 20 tries. Mark Nawaqanitawase and Herbie Farnworth also have 18+ tries in them, but gee it looks open.
  • Top Pointscorer: Stephen Crichton or Nick Meaney... Origin might slow Crichton down a touch, but the Dogs and Storm will score a lot of points. Jamayne Isaako could run away with it if Redcliffe have to score 34 points a game to win again this year.

State of Origin: NSW 2-1... let's believe.


2026 NRL Grand Final: Canberra v Canterbury


2026 PREMIERS: Canberra

Clive Churchill Medal: Ethan Strange

Why Canberra? Fair question.


Those who listened to the Podcast over the years know I don't pick my team to finish highly often, so to think we might actually win the comp is as much a vote of confidence in young Ethan Sanders improving the team's ability to be naturally creative over the Jamal Fogarty kick happy mantra, as well as the fact the rest of the contenders don't feel as scary as in year's past. Ricky Stuart still had his team play very entertaining footy, but when push came to shove the kick-reliant footy and what we all knew to be a suspect right edge defensive - saw the Raiders out in straight sets. They have every base covered if Sanders is as good as I think he can be, and Ethan Strange is going to be a bigger factor out of the Fogarty control shadow. Their pack is as good as anyone in the comp too. They are my Premiership pick.


I've got Melbourne as Minor Premiers out of respect for not playing poorly in regular seasons, not because I think they are so far ahead of the rest when it comes to September. Penrith, Cronulla, Brisbane and even Easts could all finish Top 4 - the comp is wide open amongst the Top 7 (maybe 8 if I include Redcliffe) and that's why I think it ends with a repeat of the '94 GF with Canberra v Canterbury. I expect the Bulldogs to be as good as anyone in 2026 to they reward Gus Gould with a trip to another GF. 


So Canberra adding a well-overdue 4th title is my prediction for 2026. Call it a gut feel, call it bias... but fingers and toes all crossed in advance!


Thanks for reading and good luck to your team in 2026.
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Sunday, 2 March 2025

2025 NRL Season Predictions - Top 8 and Premiers - from NOT The Footy Show



2025 NRL Season Predictions
Published March 2, 2025.
NOT The Footy Show might be back in early March for a 2025 NRL Season preview (after Vegas games) but given our last Podcast was in July 2024... you may need to settle for another written set of NRL predictions.
When Robb Cox provides his 1-17 finishing positions for the upcoming NRL Season they will be added, but you do get Warrick Nicolson's below.
We said this last March but at this time of year, you build the predicted season ladder based on 60% last year's form, plus 40% gut feel to get the 1-17 Ladder - it's truly just guesswork.

Warrick Nicolson's 2025 NRL Predictions 

True Contenders

1. Melbourne Storm - MP

2. Penrith Panthers

Should Play Finals

3.  Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles

4.  Brisbane Broncos

5. Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks

Not Confident They Will

6. Canberra Raiders

7. Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs

8. Redcliffe Dolphins

Missing the Cut

9. Newcastle Knights

10. Sydney Roosters

11. Gold Coast Titans

Next Rung Of Mediocrity 

12. Parramatta Eels

13. North Queensland Cowboys

14. Wests Tigers

15. St George-Illawarra Dragons

2025 Spoon Bowl

16. South Sydney Rabbitohs

17. New Zealand Warriors


2025 Regular Season Awards:

Dally M: Tom Trbojevic 

Tryscorer: William Warbrick, and whichever Manly winger plays the most games.

Pointscorer: Reuben Garrick


State of Origin - NSW 2-1... again 🥳


2025 NRL Grand Final: Melbourne v Manly


2025 PREMIERS: Melbourne

Clive Churchill Medal: Jahrome Hughes 


I think the Storm have the most game breakers in the one side now Luai has moved to the Tigers from Penrith. Manly are my Cinderella team who put Penrith's quest for 5 in a row to the sword in the Prelim.


Thanks for reading and good luck to your team in 2025.

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Thursday, 18 July 2024

NOT The Footy Show Episode 296: NSW conquer the QLD myth

NOT The Footy Show - Episode 296 
  
Published July 18, 2023  

Join Robb Cox and Warrick Nicolson for Episode 296 of NOT The Footy Show as they bathe in the glory of a well-earned, and quite brilliant, 2024 State of Origin Series victory by New South Wales

Our first Podcast in four months was brought on by the Blues finding a way to comeback from 0-1 down in the Series after losing 38-10 at home... first they destroyed Billiam Slater's unbeatable QLDers 38-18 at the MCG in Game 2, and then won an outstanding game of Origin footy 14-4 at Lang Park in the decider. 

Angus Crichton took out the Wally Lewis Medal for Player of the Series, but he was just one of a host of Blues who simply stuck it to QLD this year. 

Thanks for listening everyone - please allow us to enjoy this one. 

🔘 Stream the New Podcast 

🔘 Watch Episode 296 on YouTube 

 
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Monday, 11 March 2024

NOT The Footy Show Episode 295: It's Our Year

NOT The Footy Show - Episode 295 
  
Published March 11, 2023  

Join Robb Cox and Warrick Nicolson for Episode 295 of NOT The Footy Show as they review second half of Round 1 with St George-Illawarra and Canberra booking their spots in the 2024 NRL Grand Final already. 

It's a very Dragon centric Podcast to open with as we try to douse the unbridled enthusiasm from some Red V fans over the impact of Shane Flanagan - all aboard the Shane Train! 

Plus we talk some of Canberra's win over Newcastle, Penrith's 'attack' and the rest of Round 1. And we finally give our Top 8 and actual Grand Final Predictions for 2024. 

Thanks for listening everyone. 

🔘 Watch Episode 295 on YouTube 

🔘 Stream the New Podcast 

Cheers 

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Monday, 4 March 2024

NOT The Footy Show Episode 294: Vegas Baby, Yeah (We're back for 2024)

NOT The Footy Show - Episode 294 
  
Published March 4, 2023  

Join Robb Cox and Warrick Nicolson for Episode 294 of NOT The Footy Show as they review the NRL kicking off Season 2024 in Las Vegas over the weekend. 

We discuss the best way to keep the Las Vegas experience fresh and more importantly, attractively scheduled for future Australian visitors. Plus we break down our views on both games as Manly beat Souths 36-24 and Easts beat Brisbane 20-10. 

We will give our Top 8 Picks next Pod. 

Thanks for listening everyone. 

🔘 Stream the New Podcast 

Cheers 

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Saturday, 2 March 2024

2024 NRL Season Preview and Top 8 Predictions from NOT The Footy Show



2024 NRL Season Predictions
Published March 2, 2024.
There won't be a podcast version of NOT The Footy Show's 2024 NRL Predictions but hopefully we get a chance to record next week with some initial thoughts on Vegas games and to reiterate these selections.
Robb Cox has yet to pick his 1-17 finishing positions for the upcoming NRL Season, but Warrick Nicolson's are below.
At this time of year you build the predicted ladder based on 60% last year's form plus 40% gut feel to get the 1-17 Ladder - cue the triggering.

Warrick Nicolson's 2024 NRL Predictions 

True Contenders
1. Penrith Panthers - Minor Premiers
2. Brisbane Broncos

These two look to be a class or three above the rest of the pack entering 2024. Penrith have lost some pieces but still look excellent across the park and Cleary has a Dally M he has to tick off his bucket list so don't back against him getting Penrith to another Minor Premiership. Brisbane will still rely on Adam Reynolds and his hamstrings holding up, but even with Tom Flegler and Herbie Farnworth moving to Redcliffe - they have a lot of firepower to challenge the Panthers for the JJ Giltinan Shield. I've got these two sides back at Accor Stadium on Grand Final day for good reason.

Should Play Finals
3. Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks
4. Parramatta Eels
5. New Zealand Warriors
6. Melbourne Storm
7. South Sydney Rabbitohs
8. Sydney Roosters
At the end of the day the reason these six teams make up the rest of the Top 8 is they have more of the higher quality top level players on their rosters. That doesn't mean they'll all play great as a team but game-breaking talent matters at NRL level. Cronulla, Parramatta, Melbourne and the Warriors could all end up in the Top 4, whilst I feel Souths and Easts may have to scratch and claw their way into the Top 8. I almost left the Chooks out entirely but they just have too many good players to do that - I will stick the neck out and say they won't make the Top 2 and probably not the Top 4 though... Sharks and Eels will beat up on the bad teams like they normally do and that's why I've got them in 3rd and 4th, Warriors keep winning at home and they won't lose their mojo, and Melbourne have so much elite talent but a forward pack that is suspect when Nelson Asofa-Solomona is the forward you must rely on most outside of hooker Harry Grant. Souths need Lachlan Ilias to take a step forward and make up for when Cody Walker and Latrell Mitchell aren't firing too.

Missing the Cut
9. North Queensland Cowboys
10. Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
11. Newcastle Knights
12. Redcliffe Dolphins
13. Gold Coast Titans
14. Canberra Raiders
The Cowboys and Manly are probably the next closest to the Top 8 talent wise so that's why they are 9th and 10th. Scott Drinkwater and Tom Trbojevic can carry their respective sides into a Finals spot, but I don't rate Le Chad at all and think the North Queensland pack is overrated - plus DCE has been playing otherworldly footy in recent years but Manly just don't make the Semis without Tommy fit and he turned 35 last month. Newcastle - I'm more than happy for you to prove me wrong and play like it's the last 10 weeks of 2023 again for all of 2024 but that felt like lightning in a bottle v the norm. Redcliffe won't fall off the pace in Wayne Bennett's final season in charge there - he simply won't allow them to give up but their halves must lift big time for them to threaten the semis. Gold Coast with Des and Canberra with Ricky will have plenty of fight in them but both need a reset in their approach - the Titans in regards to their defence and Canberra in terms of their attacking structure with a badly needed injection of youth. Hard to see those delivering week in week out so they sit visually further out of the Top 8 than I think they may actually be with a month left to go in the season.

2024 Spoon Bowl
15. Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
16. Wests Tigers
17. St George-Illawarra Dragons
Sorry if you love your Bulldogs, Tigers or Dragons but this is going to be a long, long, long year. Any one of these three teams have excellent Wooden Spoon credentials - so may the worst team win!

2024 NRL Grand Final: Penrith v Brisbane
Don't see a good reason amongst the other 15 teams to be against the Broncos and Panthers going at it in a repeat of the 2023 decider.
"Only one team can stop Penrith from 4 in a row... and that's the team that got run over in the GF after leading by 16 with 25 to go (maybe)."
2024 PREMIERS: Penrith
Clive Churchill Medal: Nathan Cleary.

Reason? See CCM pick above - Nathan Cleary.

Regular Season Awards:
Dally M: Nathan Cleary from Nicho Hynes and Reece Walsh,
Tryscorer: Brian To'o, from Dominic Young and Alex Johnston
Pointscorer: Nicho Hynes from Nathan Cleary and Mitchell Moses,

State of Origin - NSW 2-1... surely Tom Trbojevic and Latrell Mitchell show up for at least two games in 2024???

Thanks for reading - hope to have a Podcast out soon and will add Coxsmith's predictions here when I get them.
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We are aiming to be back for at least a few shows in 2024 - so you can subscribe to the NOT The Footy Show Podcast 
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Tuesday, 10 October 2023

2023-24 NHL Season Preview - Vegas won't repeat... right?

OPEN ICE AHEAD...
Published October 10, 2023 
A year ago I got back on the horse with my first NHL Season Preview on wdnicolson.com in a decade, and we were kind of right with our Vegas prediction:
PS. The Vegas Golden Knights need to find some goaltending but Jack Eichel is going to have a big year. 
They did - ADIN HILL! - and look at that, won the Stanley Cup in 5 games over the Florida Panthers.
I also didn't miss on the Boston Bruins... well in a regular season sense.
The Boston Bruins might be a threat if they can start winning regularly when Brad Marchand returns from injury in the New Year and their goaltending is still very good.
So after nailing those two 'predictions' for the Playoffs* and Regular Season*, here is my look at the 2023-24 NHL Season - with a skew towards a team's regular season finish.
Here are the Contenders - this season feels wide open so there's a few in this category:
  • In the West... The defending champs Vegas look healthier up front than this time last year and the goaltending duo of Hill-Logan Thompson is suddenly formidable (Robin who?). If they roll out their defence (once Martinez is back) like they did during the playoffs it's hard to see them not in the race of the Pacific Division title with the Edmonton Oilers - who will once again ride their spectacular offence led by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl and a suspect back end. Both the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars look really strong - but if the Avalanche get secondary scoring again they have the edge on Dallas in the Central.
  • In the East... the Toronto Maple Leafs look like a regular season juggernaut... so they are in this category given they could win the President's Trophy but they don't have a good track record of convincing anyone when it matters. The New Jersey Devils will take a big stride by possibly winning that President's Trophy with a high powered forward group, quality defence but again, potentially suspect goaltending worries me. The next two are teams I look at as playoff threats if they get a good enough seed and survive the first round of the playoffs - the Boston Bruins with a lot to prove (again) and just need to find some reliable centremen to be in a position to do so, and the Carolina Hurricanes had one bad week last spring and got bounced out of the playoffs by Florida - they can get over that hump with an even better defence this season. They are really good - and deep.
As for the rest who deserve consideration for a Stanley Cup challenge?
  • The Pittsburgh Penguins have some serious top end talent but unless Tristan Jarry wakes up in net - no amount of Erik Karlsson with the Penguins core can lift them into the playoffs let alone a longer run. Although I've got the Tampa Bay Lightning in a wildcard seed they will have Andrei Vasilevskiy back at some stage so you can't leave them out of the playoff race - and if they are fit by then they can win the Cup. The Cinderella team of last year - the Florida Panthers will get back into the mix but it's hard to see them beating a fired up Boston in a rematch in the first round. 
Can I make a case for anyone else to really contend? 
  • The Los Angeles Kings, New York Rangers, Seattle Kraken, Winnipeg Jets and Minnesota Wild are playoff teams in my predictions but only the Kings and Rangers might see Round 2. On the outside looking in are the Buffalo Sabres, New York Islanders, Ottawa Senators, Nashville Predators and my smokey the Arizona Coyotes but I feel all capable of making the playoffs.
  • It's going to be another long season for everyone else, with the Detroit Red Wings and the Washington Ovechkins the most interesting of the others in the East, and the Calgary Flames and Vancouver Canucks might do okay in the West.
I've got the San Jose Sharks bringing up the rear in their quest for the 1st Overall Pick.
Here are my predicted 2023-24 Regular Season Standings for both conferences:
** Conference Top Seed *Playoff Team
Eastern Conference - Atlantic Division
  1. Toronto Maple Leafs *
  2. Boston Bruins *
  3. Florida Panthers *
  4. Tampa Bay Lightning *
  5. Buffalo Sabres
  6. Ottawa Senators
  7. Detroit Red Wings
  8. Montreal Canadiens
Eastern Conference - Metropolitan Division
  1. New Jersey Devils **
  2. Pittsburgh Penguins *
  3. Carolina Hurricanes *
  4. New York Rangers *
  5. New York Islanders
  6. Washington Capitals
  7. Columbus Blue Jackets
  8. Philadelphia Flyers
Western Conference - Central Division
  1. Colorado Avalanche *
  2. Dallas Stars *
  3. Minnesota Wild *
  4. Winnipeg Jets *
  5. Nashville Predators
  6. Arizona Coyotes
  7. St. Louis Blues
  8. Chicago Blackhawks
Western Conference - Pacific Division
  1. Edmonton Oilers **
  2. Vegas Golden Knights *
  3. Los Angeles Kings *
  4. Seattle Kraken *
  5. Vancouver Canucks
  6. Calgary Flames
  7. Anaheim Ducks
  8. San Jose Sharks
2023-24 NHL Awards
Hart Trophy - Connor McDavid, Edmonton (from Draisaitl and Shesterkin)
Art Ross - Connor McDavid, Edmonton (from L Draisaitl, J Hughes, N McKinnon and M Rantanen)
Rocket Richard - Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton (from Rantanen and McDavid).
Norris - Cale Makar, Colorado
Vezina - Igor Shesterkin, New York Rangers
Adams - Mike Sullivan, Pittsburgh
Calder - Connor Bedard, Chicago
Jennings - Hill-Thompson, Vegas
Selke - Nico Hischier, New Jersey
Byng - Jack Hughes, New Jersey

The pointy-end of the season:
Eastern Conference Final
Carolina Hurricanes over Boston Bruins
Western Conference Final
Colorado Avalanche over Vegas Golden Knights
Stanley Cup Final
Colorado Avalanche over Carolina Hurricanes
Colorado's back end - when healthy - is the most dynamic in the NHL and I've got them pushing past Vegas (who knock out Edmonton) to emerge from the West. In the East I've got a hunch New Jersey do a Boston and go wild in the regular season but get upset by the Rangers in Round 1, with either Carolina or Pittsburgh coming out of the East after their first round matchup. Boston will be the team to emerge from the Atlantic - sorry again fans of the Maple Leafs.
So in the Stanley Cup Final - lets go with Avs over Canes in 6 games
But I think this is such an open race for the Cup - much like last year once Boston imploded in the playoffs. 
Cale Makar or Nathan McKinnon for the Conn Smythe, even if Alexandar Georgiev plays out of his skin in net.
Enjoy the season everyone.
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