The title might be a little rash given the tipping so far this year hasn't been horrendous but it has been frustrating. I've adopted the 'when in doubt pick home teams' attitude from Round 1 of the AFL and NRL and have then gone completely against this rule in at least 1 if not 2 games around when common sense only seems to hit me on Monday. So with Round 6 of the NRL, Round 4 of the AFL and Week 10 of the Super 14 almost upon us here are the tips with a few stats here and there for your consideration. NRL ROUND 06 - 2009 Broncos over Panthers Raiders over Titans Dragons over Knights Sea Eagles over Rabbitohs Warriors over Roosters Cowboys over Sharks Eels over Bulldogs Storm over Tigers Now if you're doing the math and know the draw - I've gone against my 'rule' and picked FIVE away teams and at least three of those selections are sketchy at best up against the 'when in doubt pick home teams' thought process. What makes me think the Raiders will beat a Titans side at home that has been awesome defensively in the past month is beyond me, a Manly side that has won just one game and that was against a very poor Wests Tigers outfit and Brett Stewart back in the lineup and the Cowboys should instil confidence in absolutely nobody in the last month as they've looked a lot like the defensively challenged Nth Qld side of 2008. Then you've got the Broncos and Storm to win away from home against two sides who play well at home (Panthers and Tigers respectively) and really the Broncos haven't been great in the past fortnight and the Storm's only good performance came in Townsville at the Cowboys. So naturally now I've gone home team with the Eels, Warriors and Dragons they'll be the ones that lose and the teams I picked against playing at home - will win. Simply science really. AFL ROUND 04 - 2009 The home team factor used to be the absolute rule of thumb when it came to Aussie Rules but now everyone from Victoria plays at either the MCG or Docklands (Geelong also at Skilled Stadium) and if you're Collingwood that's the only places you play your entire schedule! This means that form starts to mean a great deal from the previous couple of weeks (again unless you're Geelong who have lost only like 2 games in their last 50) so it pays to keep an eye on who is winning and how they're winning. I tipped foolishly the Richmond Tigers last week when they came up against the continually impressive Western Bulldogs and ended up with 6/8 when a lot of people would've got 7/8. That is something I've noticed with AFL Tipping - the vast majority of tippers always tip well - getting that upset or two every fortnight is the difference when it comes to the end of the season. Not that I've been getting these upsets however... although I did take West Coast over Port Adelaide in Round 2! So to the tips for Round 4: Magpies over Lions (WAIT! They are playing out of Victoria???? Get on the phone Eddie! Protest!) Swans over Blues Hawks over Power Saints over Dockers Cats over Crows Kangaroos over Bombers Tigers over Demons Bulldogs over Eagles (funnily enough I think this could be an upset as it is at Subiaco but the Bulldogs aren't struggling so I have to stick with them). SUPER 14 Week 10 - 2009 Super 14 is the ultimate home ground tipsters game and this year I've fell out of the running mid-season because I kept picking away teams!!!! So don't listen to me here for your own sake when you make your tips. Highlanders over Blues (seriously ignore my picks) Bulls over Brumbies Hurricanes over Stormers (have accepted the fact the Stormers are not that good... pity I've taken them in like 6 of their 9 games) Reds over Lions Waratahs over Force Chiefs over Cheetahs (although wasn't it refreshing to see them beat the Sharks last week?) Sharks over the Crusaders in the match of the day/week/round/month/season. Good luck with your tips this weekend!
Thursday, 16 April 2009
Tipping? Channel the Chilli Peppers and give it away give it away now.
This is an archived story - so check the main page - www.wdnicolson.blogspot.com for the current round of tipping for NRL, AFL and Super 14. The site is also updated with opinion, news and features regularly.