Monday, 4 March 2024

NOT The Footy Show Episode 294: Vegas Baby, Yeah (We're back for 2024)

NOT The Footy Show - Episode 294 
  
Published March 4, 2023  

Join Robb Cox and Warrick Nicolson for Episode 294 of NOT The Footy Show as they review the NRL kicking off Season 2024 in Las Vegas over the weekend. 

We discuss the best way to keep the Las Vegas experience fresh and more importantly, attractively scheduled for future Australian visitors. Plus we break down our views on both games as Manly beat Souths 36-24 and Easts beat Brisbane 20-10. 

We will give our Top 8 Picks next Pod. 

Thanks for listening everyone. 

🔘 Stream the New Podcast 

Cheers 

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Saturday, 2 March 2024

2024 NRL Season Preview and Top 8 Predictions from NOT The Footy Show



2024 NRL Season Predictions
Published March 2, 2024.
There won't be a podcast version of NOT The Footy Show's 2024 NRL Predictions but hopefully we get a chance to record next week with some initial thoughts on Vegas games and to reiterate these selections.
Robb Cox has yet to pick his 1-17 finishing positions for the upcoming NRL Season, but Warrick Nicolson's are below.
At this time of year you build the predicted ladder based on 60% last year's form plus 40% gut feel to get the 1-17 Ladder - cue the triggering.

Warrick Nicolson's 2024 NRL Predictions 

True Contenders
1. Penrith Panthers - Minor Premiers
2. Brisbane Broncos

These two look to be a class or three above the rest of the pack entering 2024. Penrith have lost some pieces but still look excellent across the park and Cleary has a Dally M he has to tick off his bucket list so don't back against him getting Penrith to another Minor Premiership. Brisbane will still rely on Adam Reynolds and his hamstrings holding up, but even with Tom Flegler and Herbie Farnworth moving to Redcliffe - they have a lot of firepower to challenge the Panthers for the JJ Giltinan Shield. I've got these two sides back at Accor Stadium on Grand Final day for good reason.

Should Play Finals
3. Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks
4. Parramatta Eels
5. New Zealand Warriors
6. Melbourne Storm
7. South Sydney Rabbitohs
8. Sydney Roosters
At the end of the day the reason these six teams make up the rest of the Top 8 is they have more of the higher quality top level players on their rosters. That doesn't mean they'll all play great as a team but game-breaking talent matters at NRL level. Cronulla, Parramatta, Melbourne and the Warriors could all end up in the Top 4, whilst I feel Souths and Easts may have to scratch and claw their way into the Top 8. I almost left the Chooks out entirely but they just have too many good players to do that - I will stick the neck out and say they won't make the Top 2 and probably not the Top 4 though... Sharks and Eels will beat up on the bad teams like they normally do and that's why I've got them in 3rd and 4th, Warriors keep winning at home and they won't lose their mojo, and Melbourne have so much elite talent but a forward pack that is suspect when Nelson Asofa-Solomona is the forward you must rely on most outside of hooker Harry Grant. Souths need Lachlan Ilias to take a step forward and make up for when Cody Walker and Latrell Mitchell aren't firing too.

Missing the Cut
9. North Queensland Cowboys
10. Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
11. Newcastle Knights
12. Redcliffe Dolphins
13. Gold Coast Titans
14. Canberra Raiders
The Cowboys and Manly are probably the next closest to the Top 8 talent wise so that's why they are 9th and 10th. Scott Drinkwater and Tom Trbojevic can carry their respective sides into a Finals spot, but I don't rate Le Chad at all and think the North Queensland pack is overrated - plus DCE has been playing otherworldly footy in recent years but Manly just don't make the Semis without Tommy fit and he turned 35 last month. Newcastle - I'm more than happy for you to prove me wrong and play like it's the last 10 weeks of 2023 again for all of 2024 but that felt like lightning in a bottle v the norm. Redcliffe won't fall off the pace in Wayne Bennett's final season in charge there - he simply won't allow them to give up but their halves must lift big time for them to threaten the semis. Gold Coast with Des and Canberra with Ricky will have plenty of fight in them but both need a reset in their approach - the Titans in regards to their defence and Canberra in terms of their attacking structure with a badly needed injection of youth. Hard to see those delivering week in week out so they sit visually further out of the Top 8 than I think they may actually be with a month left to go in the season.

2024 Spoon Bowl
15. Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
16. Wests Tigers
17. St George-Illawarra Dragons
Sorry if you love your Bulldogs, Tigers or Dragons but this is going to be a long, long, long year. Any one of these three teams have excellent Wooden Spoon credentials - so may the worst team win!

2024 NRL Grand Final: Penrith v Brisbane
Don't see a good reason amongst the other 15 teams to be against the Broncos and Panthers going at it in a repeat of the 2023 decider.
"Only one team can stop Penrith from 4 in a row... and that's the team that got run over in the GF after leading by 16 with 25 to go (maybe)."
2024 PREMIERS: Penrith
Clive Churchill Medal: Nathan Cleary.

Reason? See CCM pick above - Nathan Cleary.

Regular Season Awards:
Dally M: Nathan Cleary from Nicho Hynes and Reece Walsh,
Tryscorer: Brian To'o, from Dominic Young and Alex Johnston
Pointscorer: Nicho Hynes from Nathan Cleary and Mitchell Moses,

State of Origin - NSW 2-1... surely Tom Trbojevic and Latrell Mitchell show up for at least two games in 2024???

Thanks for reading - hope to have a Podcast out soon and will add Coxsmith's predictions here when I get them.
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We are aiming to be back for at least a few shows in 2024 - so you can subscribe to the NOT The Footy Show Podcast 
on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and catch each episode on our YouTube Channel.

We are also on Instagram so please give us a follow 
@notthefootyshow 
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Tuesday, 10 October 2023

2023-24 NHL Season Preview - Vegas won't repeat... right?

OPEN ICE AHEAD...
Published October 10, 2023 
A year ago I got back on the horse with my first NHL Season Preview on wdnicolson.com in a decade, and we were kind of right with our Vegas prediction:
PS. The Vegas Golden Knights need to find some goaltending but Jack Eichel is going to have a big year. 
They did - ADIN HILL! - and look at that, won the Stanley Cup in 5 games over the Florida Panthers.
I also didn't miss on the Boston Bruins... well in a regular season sense.
The Boston Bruins might be a threat if they can start winning regularly when Brad Marchand returns from injury in the New Year and their goaltending is still very good.
So after nailing those two 'predictions' for the Playoffs* and Regular Season*, here is my look at the 2023-24 NHL Season - with a skew towards a team's regular season finish.
Here are the Contenders - this season feels wide open so there's a few in this category:
  • In the West... The defending champs Vegas look healthier up front than this time last year and the goaltending duo of Hill-Logan Thompson is suddenly formidable (Robin who?). If they roll out their defence (once Martinez is back) like they did during the playoffs it's hard to see them not in the race of the Pacific Division title with the Edmonton Oilers - who will once again ride their spectacular offence led by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl and a suspect back end. Both the Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars look really strong - but if the Avalanche get secondary scoring again they have the edge on Dallas in the Central.
  • In the East... the Toronto Maple Leafs look like a regular season juggernaut... so they are in this category given they could win the President's Trophy but they don't have a good track record of convincing anyone when it matters. The New Jersey Devils will take a big stride by possibly winning that President's Trophy with a high powered forward group, quality defence but again, potentially suspect goaltending worries me. The next two are teams I look at as playoff threats if they get a good enough seed and survive the first round of the playoffs - the Boston Bruins with a lot to prove (again) and just need to find some reliable centremen to be in a position to do so, and the Carolina Hurricanes had one bad week last spring and got bounced out of the playoffs by Florida - they can get over that hump with an even better defence this season. They are really good - and deep.
As for the rest who deserve consideration for a Stanley Cup challenge?
  • The Pittsburgh Penguins have some serious top end talent but unless Tristan Jarry wakes up in net - no amount of Erik Karlsson with the Penguins core can lift them into the playoffs let alone a longer run. Although I've got the Tampa Bay Lightning in a wildcard seed they will have Andrei Vasilevskiy back at some stage so you can't leave them out of the playoff race - and if they are fit by then they can win the Cup. The Cinderella team of last year - the Florida Panthers will get back into the mix but it's hard to see them beating a fired up Boston in a rematch in the first round. 
Can I make a case for anyone else to really contend? 
  • The Los Angeles Kings, New York Rangers, Seattle Kraken, Winnipeg Jets and Minnesota Wild are playoff teams in my predictions but only the Kings and Rangers might see Round 2. On the outside looking in are the Buffalo Sabres, New York Islanders, Ottawa Senators, Nashville Predators and my smokey the Arizona Coyotes but I feel all capable of making the playoffs.
  • It's going to be another long season for everyone else, with the Detroit Red Wings and the Washington Ovechkins the most interesting of the others in the East, and the Calgary Flames and Vancouver Canucks might do okay in the West.
I've got the San Jose Sharks bringing up the rear in their quest for the 1st Overall Pick.
Here are my predicted 2023-24 Regular Season Standings for both conferences:
** Conference Top Seed *Playoff Team
Eastern Conference - Atlantic Division
  1. Toronto Maple Leafs *
  2. Boston Bruins *
  3. Florida Panthers *
  4. Tampa Bay Lightning *
  5. Buffalo Sabres
  6. Ottawa Senators
  7. Detroit Red Wings
  8. Montreal Canadiens
Eastern Conference - Metropolitan Division
  1. New Jersey Devils **
  2. Pittsburgh Penguins *
  3. Carolina Hurricanes *
  4. New York Rangers *
  5. New York Islanders
  6. Washington Capitals
  7. Columbus Blue Jackets
  8. Philadelphia Flyers
Western Conference - Central Division
  1. Colorado Avalanche *
  2. Dallas Stars *
  3. Minnesota Wild *
  4. Winnipeg Jets *
  5. Nashville Predators
  6. Arizona Coyotes
  7. St. Louis Blues
  8. Chicago Blackhawks
Western Conference - Pacific Division
  1. Edmonton Oilers **
  2. Vegas Golden Knights *
  3. Los Angeles Kings *
  4. Seattle Kraken *
  5. Vancouver Canucks
  6. Calgary Flames
  7. Anaheim Ducks
  8. San Jose Sharks
2023-24 NHL Awards
Hart Trophy - Connor McDavid, Edmonton (from Draisaitl and Shesterkin)
Art Ross - Connor McDavid, Edmonton (from L Draisaitl, J Hughes, N McKinnon and M Rantanen)
Rocket Richard - Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton (from Rantanen and McDavid).
Norris - Cale Makar, Colorado
Vezina - Igor Shesterkin, New York Rangers
Adams - Mike Sullivan, Pittsburgh
Calder - Connor Bedard, Chicago
Jennings - Hill-Thompson, Vegas
Selke - Nico Hischier, New Jersey
Byng - Jack Hughes, New Jersey

The pointy-end of the season:
Eastern Conference Final
Carolina Hurricanes over Boston Bruins
Western Conference Final
Colorado Avalanche over Vegas Golden Knights
Stanley Cup Final
Colorado Avalanche over Carolina Hurricanes
Colorado's back end - when healthy - is the most dynamic in the NHL and I've got them pushing past Vegas (who knock out Edmonton) to emerge from the West. In the East I've got a hunch New Jersey do a Boston and go wild in the regular season but get upset by the Rangers in Round 1, with either Carolina or Pittsburgh coming out of the East after their first round matchup. Boston will be the team to emerge from the Atlantic - sorry again fans of the Maple Leafs.
So in the Stanley Cup Final - lets go with Avs over Canes in 6 games
But I think this is such an open race for the Cup - much like last year once Boston imploded in the playoffs. 
Cale Makar or Nathan McKinnon for the Conn Smythe, even if Alexandar Georgiev plays out of his skin in net.
Enjoy the season everyone.
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